Modeling Farm Decisions For Policy Analysis

Microeconomic modeling has been an important tool for agricultural economists for several decades and promises to be important for ad-dressing the research problems of the 1980s as well. This volume explores the possibilities for using micromodeling to analyze how individual farm businesses react to and are affected by farm policies. Although this purpose represents only one potential use of micro-modeling, effective modeling for policy analysis necessitates a broad look from several historical, analytical, and institutional perspectives. The Micromodeling Conference held November 18-20, 1981, at Airlie House, Virginia, under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Agri-culture's Economic Research Service and the Farm Foundation reflected these concerns.

Systems Analysis and Modeling in Food and Agriculture is a component of Encyclopedia of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Engineering and Technology Resources in the global Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), which is an integrated compendium of twenty one Encyclopedias. Systems analysis and modeling is being used increasingly in understanding and solving problems in food and agriculture. The purpose of systems analysis is to support decisions by emphasizing the interactions of processes and components within a system. Frequently investigated systems level questions in agriculture and food are relevant to the 6 E's: Environment, Energy, Ecology, Economics, Education, and Efficiency. The theme on Systems Analysis and Modeling in Food and Agriculture with contributions from distinguished experts in the field provides information on key topics related to food and agricultural system. The coverage include an overview of food system; system level aspects related to energy, environment, and social/policy issues; knowledge bases and decision support; computer models for crops, food processing, water resources, and agricultural meteorology; collection and analysis methods for data from field experiments; use of models and information systems. This volume is aimed at the following a wide spectrum of audiences from the merely curious to those seeking in-depth knowledge: University and College students Educators, Professional practitioners, Research personnel and Policy analysts, managers, and decision makers and NGOs.

This book focuses on the use of farm level, micro- and macro-data of cooperative systems and networks in developing new robust, reliable and coherent modeling tools for agricultural and environmental policy analysis. The efficacy of public intervention on agriculture is largely determined by the existence of reliable information on the effects of policy options and market developments on farmers' production decisions and in particular, on key issues such as levels of agricultural and non-agricultural output, land use and incomes, use of natural resources, sustainable-centric management, structural change and the viability of family farms. Over the last years, several methods and analytical tools have been developed for policy analysis using various sets of data. Such methods have been based on integrated approaches in an effort to investigate the above key issues and have thus attempted to offer a powerful environment for decision making, particularly in an era of radical change for both agriculture and the wider economy.

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes a new country-level version of the model. IMPACT-SIMM (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade–Standard IFPRI Multimarket Model) is a partial equilibrium, multi-market, simulation model of the production, supply, and demand of agricultural commodities within a country or group of countries. It simulates the operation of agricultural markets, solving for equilibrium prices within a country and, in multi-country mode, global markets. It is designed to be a “portable” and potentially open-source version of the IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) IMPACT3 model documented in Robinson et al. (2015). IMPACT-SIMM shares model specification, equations, and computer code with IMPACT3, but is designed to be more flexible in application. It allows users to specify a standard multi-market model at any level of aggregation by commodities and countries by changing data inputs, without any change in model code. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies at the level of individual countries or groups of countries.

This book was written to make modem policy analysis methods accessible to policy analysts. It can improve policy decisions by combining the best analytical methods with the power of analysts' and decisionmakers' good judgment and with microcomputer hardware and software.