Model For Freight Forecasting Of Capesize Dry Bulk Carriers

This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

Investing in the bulk carrier market constitutes a rather risky investment due to the volatility of the bulk carrier freight rates. In this study it is attempted to uncover the benefits of using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in forecasting the Capesize Ore Voyage Rates from Tubarao to Rotterdam with a 145,000 dwt Bulk carrier. Initially, market analysis allows the assessment of the relation of some parameters of the dry bulk market with the evolution of freight rates. Subsequently, ANNs with an appropriate architecture are constructed and sufficient data, in terms of quantity and quality, are collected and organized so as to establish both the training and the testing data sets. The use of ANNs along with genetic algorithms allows the prediction of bulk freight rates with considerable accuracy for as long as eighteen months ahead and this is quantified by calculating the relative and absolute errors. It is concluded that ANNs offer a promising approach to forecasting the bulk market when coupled with efficient market modeling.

Econometric Modelling of World Shipping describes an economic model that may be used to forecast world shipping markets. A unique feature of the model is that it relates to both sectors of world shipping, the dry cargo sector and the tanker sector. This is the first time that a model of this type has been published. This book also breaks new ground in explaining the behaviour of vessel prices, both new and secondhand.

Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.

This book is the founding title in the Grammenos Library. The diversity of the subjects covered is unique and the results of research developed over many years are not only comprehensive, but also have important implications on real life issues in maritime business. The new edition covers a vast number of topics, including: • Shipping Economics and Maritime Nexus • International Seaborne Trade • Economics of Shipping Market and Shipping Cycles • Economics of Shipping Sectors • Issues in Liner Shipping • Economics of Maritime Safety and Seafaring Labour Market • National and International Shipping Policies • Aspects of Shipping Management and Operations• Shipping Investment and Finance • Port Economics and Management • Aspects of International Logistics

Industry and society are complex socio-technical systems, and both face problems that can only be solved by collaboration between different disciplines. Collaboration between academia and practice is also needed to develop viable solutions. Many engineering problems also require such an approach, which is known as Transdisciplinary Engineering (TE). This book presents the proceedings of the 26th ISTE International Conference on Transdisciplinary Engineering, held in Tokyo, Japan, from 30 July - 1 August 2019. The title of the conference was: Transdisciplinary Engineering for Complex Socio-technical Systems, and of the 86 submitted papers, 68 peer-reviewed papers by authors from 17 countries were delivered at the conference. These papers range from theoretical and conceptual to strongly pragmatic. They address industrial best practice and are grouped here under 10 themes: advanced robotics for smart manufacturing; design of personalized products and services; engineering methods for industry 4.0; additive and subtractive manufacturing; decision supporting tools and methods; complex systems engineering; big data analytics in manufacturing and services; concurrent engineering; cost modeling; and digital manufacturing, modeling and simulation. Presenting the latest research results and knowledge of product creation processes and related methodologies, the book will be of interest to researchers, design practitioners, and educators alike.