Mathematical Modelling Of Contemporary Electricity Markets

Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets reviews major methodologies and tools to accurately analyze and forecast contemporary electricity markets in a ways that is ideal for practitioner and academic audiences. Approaches include optimization, neural networks, genetic algorithms, co-optimization, econometrics, E3 models and energy system models. The work examines how new challenges affect power market modeling, including discussions of stochastic renewables, price volatility, dynamic participation of demand, integration of storage and electric vehicles, interdependence with other commodity markets and the evolution of policy developments (market coupling processes, security of supply). Coverage addresses all major forms of electricity markets: day-ahead, forward, intraday, balancing, and capacity. Provides a diverse body of established techniques suitable for modeling any major aspect of electricity markets Familiarizes energy experts with the quantitative skills needed in competitive electricity markets Reviews market risk for energy investment decisions by stressing the multi-dimensionality of electricity markets

The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.

This volume consists of selected essays by participants of the workshop Control at Large Scales: Energy Markets and Responsive Grids held at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A. from May 9-13, 2016. The workshop brought together a diverse group of experts to discuss current and future challenges in energy markets and controls, along with potential solutions. The volume includes chapters on significant challenges in the design of markets and incentives, integration of renewable energy and energy storage, risk management and resilience, and distributed and multi-scale optimization and control. Contributors include leading experts from academia and industry in power systems and markets as well as control science and engineering. This volume will be of use to experts and newcomers interested in all aspects of the challenges facing the creation of a more sustainable electricity infrastructure, in areas such as distributed and stochastic optimization and control, stability theory, economics, policy, and financial mathematics, as well as in all aspects of power system operation.

Offering a concise but complete survey of the common features of the microstructure of electricity markets, this book describes the state of the art in the different proposed electricity price models for pricing derivatives and in the numerical methods used to price and hedge the most prominent derivatives in electricity markets, namely power plants and swings. The mathematical content of the book has intentionally been made light in order to concentrate on the main subject matter, avoiding fastidious computations. Wherever possible, the models are illustrated by diagrams. The book should allow prospective researchers in the field of electricity derivatives to focus on the actual difficulties associated with the subject. It should also offer a brief but exhaustive overview of the latest techniques used by financial engineers in energy utilities and energy trading desks.

Get up-to-speed with the fundamentals of how electricity markets are structured and operated with this comprehensive textbook, presenting coverage of key topics in electricity market design, including power system and power market operations, transmission, unit commitment, demand response, and risk management. It includes over 140 practical examples, inspired by real-industry applications, connecting key theoretical concepts to practical scenarios in electricity market design, and features over 100 coding-based examples and exercises, with selected solutions for readers. It further demonstrates how mathematical programming models are implemented in an industry setting. Requiring no experience in power systems or energy economics, this is the ideal introduction to electricity markets for senior undergraduate and graduate students in electrical engineering, economics, and operations research, and a robust introduction to the field for professionals in utilities, energy policy, and energy regulation. Accompanied online by datasets, AMPL code, supporting videos, and full solutions and lecture slides for instructors.

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute, Istanbul, Turkey, June 1979

An overview of today's energy markets from a multi-commodity perspective As global warming takes center stage in the public and private sectors, new debates on the future of energy markets and electricity generation have emerged around the world. The Second Edition of Managing Energy Risk has been updated to reflect the latest products, approaches, and energy market evolution. A full 30% of the content accounts for changes that have occurred since the publication of the first edition. Practitioners will appreciate this contemporary approach to energy and the comprehensive information on recent market influences. A new chapter is devoted to the growing importance of renewable energy sources, related subsidy schemes and their impact on energy markets. Carbon emissions certificates, post-Fukushima market shifts, and improvements in renewable energy generation are all included. Further, due to the unprecedented growth in shale gas production in recent years, a significant amount of material on gas markets has been added in this edition. Managing Energy Risk is now a complete guide to both gas and electricity markets, and gas-specific models like gas storage and swing contracts are given their due. The unique, practical approach to energy trading includes a comprehensive explanation of the interactions and relations between all energy commodities. Thoroughly revised to reflect recent changes in renewable energy, impacts of the financial crisis, and market fluctuations in the wake of Fukushima Emphasizes both electricity and gas, with all-new gas valuation models and a thorough description of the gas market Written by a team of authors with theoretical and practical expertise, blending mathematical finance and technical optimization Covers developments in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, as well as coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables The latest developments in gas and power markets have demonstrated the growing importance of energy risk management for utility companies and energy intensive industry. By combining energy economics models and financial engineering, Managing Energy Risk delivers a balanced perspective that captures the nuances in the exciting world of energy.

Developing some guiding principles to be used when evaluating alternative proposals for reorganizing the US electric power industry, this text contains preliminary versions of papers that were presented at a Workshop convened by the Electric Power Research Institute at Stanford University in 1997.

This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.