Mapping Financial Stability

This book approaches macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of three tasks. The focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication into analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment. Generally, this book explores approaches for representing complex data concerning financial entities on low-dimensional displays. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. Accordingly, this book creates a Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), and lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. Beyond external risk communication, the aim of the visual means is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence.

This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.

Financial soundness indicators (FSIs) are methodological tools that help quantify and qualify the soundness and vulnerabilities of financial systems according to five areas of interests: capital adequacy, asset quality, earnings, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk. With support from the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund under the Regional Cooperation and Integration Financing Facility, this report describes the development of FSIs for Viet Nam and analyzes the stability and soundness of the Vietnamese banking system by using these indicators. The key challenges to comprehensively implementing reforms and convincingly addressing the root causes of the banking sector problems include (i) assessing banks' recapitalization needs, (ii) revising classification criteria to guide resolution options, (iii) recapitalization and restructuring that may include foreign partnerships, (iv) strengthening the Vietnam Asset Management Company, (v) developing additional options to deal with nonperforming loans, (vi) tightening supervision to ensure a sound lending practice, (vii) revamping the architecture and procedures for crisis management, and (viii) strengthening financial safety nets during the reform process.

In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.

Stress testing is becoming a widely used tool to assess potential vulnerabilities in a financial system. This paper is intended to answer some of the basic questions that may arise as part of the process of stress testing. The paper begins with a discussion of stress testing in a financial system context, highlighting some of the differences between stress tests of systems and of individual portfolios. The paper provides an overview of the process itself, from identifying vulnerabilities, to constructing scenarios, to interpreting the results. The experience of the IMF in conducting stress testing as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is also discussed.

This PhD dissertation consists of six chapters related to applications of network analysis' methods for financial stability. The first chapter introduces the network perspective as a new mapping technique for studying and understanding financial markets' architecture. The second chapter breaks down the Colombian sovereign securities market into different layers of interaction corresponding to distinct trading and registering platforms. The third chapter addresses an overlooked issue: How to measure the importance of financial market infrastructures within their corresponding network. The fourth chapter studies the connective and hierarchical structure of the Colombian non-collateralized money market, and uses an information retrieval algorithm for identifying those financial institutions that simultaneously excel at borrowing and lending central bank's liquidity (i.e. super-spreaders). The fifth chapter addresses - for the first time - the question regarding the presence of a modular hierarchy in financial networks, and discusses the main implications for financial stability. The sixth chapter explicitly models the role of financial market infrastructures as financial markets' “plumbing”, and recognizes that traditional analysis of financial institutions networks is of a virtual or logical nature. The third chapter is published in the Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures (Vol.2 (3), 2014), whereas the fifth chapter is published in the Journal of Financial Stability (Vol.15, 2014).

Introduction -- The global financial crisis of 2007-09 : an overview of neglected ideas from economics, psychology, and values / A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw, and Hersh Shefrin -- The global financial crisis of 2007-09 and economics -- From asset price bubbles to liquidity traps / A.G. Malliaris -- A minsky meltdown: lessons for central bankers / Janet Yellen -- Modeling financial instability / Steve Keen -- Assessing the contribution of hyman minsky's perspective to our understanding of economic instability / Hersh Shefrin -- The Great Recession of 2008-09 and its impact on unemployment / John Silvia -- Mathematical definition, mapping, and detection of (anti)fragility / Nassim Taleb and Rafael Douady -- The global financial crisis of 2007-09 and psychology -- The varieties of incentive experience / Robert Kolb -- Goals and the organization of choice under risk in both the long run and the short run / Lola Lopes -- Topology of greed and fear / Graciela Chichilnisky -- A sustainable understanding of instability in minds and in markets / Leslie Shaw -- Existence of monopoly in the stock market : a model of information-based manipulation / Viktoria Dalko, Lawrence R. Klein, S. Prakash Sethi, and Michael Wang -- Crisis of authority / Werner DeBondt -- Social structure, power, and financial fraud / Brooke Harrington -- The global financial crisis of 2007-09 and values -- Economics, self psychology, and ethics : why modern economic persons cheat and how self psychology can provide the basis for a trustworthy economic world / John Riker -- Finance professionals in the market for status / Meir Statman -- Why risk management failed: ethical and behavioral explanations / John Boatright -- The global financial crisis and social justice : the crisis seen through the lens of Catholic social doctrine / Paul Fitzgerald, S.J -- The moral benefits of financial crises: a virtue ethics perspective / John Dobson -- Three ethical dimensions of the financial crisis / Antonio Argandonan -- Epilogue -- Lessons for future financial stability / A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw, and Hersh Shefrin

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.