Leading Indicators For The 1990s

Describes sweeping changes to the Commerce Department's leading economic indicators.

How did we come by the “leading indicators” we place such stock in? We allocate trillions of dollars and make public policy and personal decisions based upon them, but what do they really tell us? “The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.

Wattenberg offers many persuasive reasons why America is not only still "number one", but poised on the brink of its most promising decade. The United States has become something never seen before--the first universal nation. At home, the nation is robust and growing, while overseas, America is the preeminent military power and is still economically dynamic and technologicically innotive.

In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.

One of America's preeminent market gurus and the editor of Personal Finance magazine provides specific indicators for judging the stock market--signals that are applicable to any economic environment. Leeb also shows how to buy stocks low and sell them high in this priceless guide.

Trading the Fundamentals - The Trader's Complete Guide to Interpreting Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy explains the significance, viability, and market impact of 23 of the most widely followed economic indicators. Michael P. Niemira and Gerald F. Zukowski, two top Wall Street economists examine and explain how each indicator behaves through every phase of the business cycle.

Investigates various aspects of inflation - the recent history of inflation as well as potential sources of changes, the technical issues regarding the measurement of inflation, the indicators for future inflation, and the policy implications to achieve and maintain price stability.