Keeping Capital Flowing

In this paper, we examine the IMF's role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF-supported program, although they may initially deteriorate somewhat. Consistent with theoretical predictions and earlier empirical findings, we find that IMF-supported programs are most successful in improving capital flows to countries with bad, but not very bad fundamentals. In such countries, IMF-supported programs are also associated with improvements in the fundamentals themselves.

"In this paper, we examine the IMF's role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF program, although they may initially deteriorate somewhat. Consistent with theoretical predictions and earlier empirical findings, we find that IMF programs are most successful in improving capital flows to countries with bad, but not very bad fundamentals. In such countries, IMF programs are also associated with improvements in the fundamentals themselves"--NBER website

In this paper, we examine the IMF`s role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF-supported program, although they may initially deteriorate somewhat. Consistent with theoretical predictions and earlier empirical findings, we find that IMF-supported programs are most successful in improving capital flows to countries with bad, but not very bad fundamentals. In such countries, IMF-supported programs are also associated with improvements in the fundamentals themselves.

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

This volume contains country experiences explained by policy makers and studies by leading experts on causes and consequences of capital flows as well as policies to control these flows. It addresses portfolio flow issues central to open economies, especially emerging markets.

September 1998 Foreign direct investment and, more recently, short-term debt and portfolio flows have become important parts of private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Private flows have increased in response to reform efforts, the buildup of reserves, and prospective membership in the European Union. Private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have taken off in recent years. Foreign direct investment was the most important such flow from 1991-97, but since 1993 short-term debt and portfolio flows have also been important. The increase in these potentially more volatile short-term flows raises some questions about sustainability and vulnerability. Perhaps more than in other developing countries, reform efforts appear to be the most important determinant of private flows to the region. Private flows also have responded positively to the buildup of reserves (a proxy for improvements in perceived creditworthiness) and to prospective membership in the European Union (reflecting greater economic integration with the West and a greater commitment to reform). Official flows have been associated with the financing of fiscal deficits and appear to have led, rather than followed, countries' reform efforts. This paper-a joint product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reducation and Economic Management Network; and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-was prepared for the National Bureau for Economic Research study, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, organized by Sebastian Edwards. The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].

Capital flows to the developing economies have long displayed a boom-and-bust pattern. Rarely has the cycle turned as abruptly as it did in the 1990s, however: surges in lending were followed by the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95 and the sudden collapse of currencies in Asia in 1997. This volume maps a new and uncertain financial landscape, one in which volatile private capital flows and fragile banking systems produce sudden reversals of fortune for governments and economies. This environment creates dilemmas for both national policymakers who confront the "mixed blessing" of capital inflows and the international institutions that manage the recurrent crises.The authors—leading economists and political scientists—examine private capital flows and their consequences in Latin America, Pacific Asia, and East Europe, placing current cycles of lending in historical perspective. National governments have used a variety of strategies to deal with capital-account instability. The authors evaluate those responses, prescribe new alternatives, and consider whether the new circumstances require novel international policies.

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

This book, the result of a joint project between the OECD Development Centre and the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), examines the policies of a group of major Latin American countries faced with large inflows.

This books explores the international aspects of pension reform, private savings and volatile capital markets and clarifies how they relate to each other.