Kazakhstan Development Finance Assessment

Meeting the 2030 Agenda requires unprecedented investment from different sources of finance, ambitious strategies, and structural reform. In recent years, total available development finance in Kazakhstan stagnated and decreased significantly as a share of gross domestic product. This publication presents a comprehensive analysis of trends in public and private finance, along with existing policies and partnerships in place. It discusses the feasibility for Kazakhstan to establish a financing mechanism to maximize development finance and resource allocation to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

This Financial System Stability Assessment highlights that the global financial crisis exposed serious bank vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan. The authorities successfully contained the ensuing systemic crisis, however, left unaddressed important weaknesses that continue to linger. The government has nationalized three of the largest banks and restructured their external obligations, thus preventing a collapse of the banking system. The banks’ solvency situation is adequate but somewhat fragile as a result of legacy problems. A faster transition to risk-based oversight is needed. The relative vulnerability of banks to shocks warrants increased emphasis on risk. This can be achieved through the adoption of more advanced risk-assessment tools and a more extensive use of stress test results for risk analysis. The financial safety net and resolution framework were upgraded during the crisis but need further adjustments. The government amended the resolution framework in 2009 to incorporate several desirable features such as restructuring, purchase and assumption, and bridge bank. However, during the crisis it bypassed the use of sequential crisis management tools and nationalized banks and restructured their external liabilities. The resolution framework suffers from the absence of special authority and requires the approval of depositors and creditors. Adjustments to the Emergency Liquidity Assistance framework are needed to limit its availability to solvent institutions.

Following Kazakhstan’s recovery from the 2014-15 decline in oil prices, the country was hit by a series of shocks, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, then the January 2022 social unrest, and most recently the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So far, that has had limited impact on output, also thanks to various measures taken by the authorities to stabilize the economy. However, there are risks to the outlook. The financial system, which is small and bank-dominated, underwent significant changes during this period. Banks’ largest exposures are to households while large corporates rely on non-residents for funding.

Kazakhstan is vulnerable to transition risk due to the importance of its energy- and emissions-intensive sectors. Domestic and global climate policies would negatively affect Kazakhstan’s economy, its firms, industries, and banks, with heterogenous impacts across industries and banks. Using both micro and macro modeling approaches, the climate risk analysis suggests Kazakhstani banks are exposed to significant transition risk from domestic and, more importantly, global climate policies. The risk is especially higher for carbon intensive sectors, such as fossil fuel extraction, refining, and electricity generation. Banks with large exposure to emissions-intensive sectors experience up to 30 percent additional losses under a disorderly 1.5°C scenario over a 5-to-7-year horizon, compared to the baseline. Banks with a small share of portfolio with emissions-intensives sectors may still experience losses, as climate change mitigation actions affect the economy at large and the financial health of individual consumers, businesses, and industries.

This technical note examines investment opportunities for pension funds in Kazakhstan. It puts forward policy alternatives that could lead to improved management of pension fund assets in Kazakhstan. The note emphasizes prudence in the management of pension assets, given the social and fiscal importance of the pension sector. It discusses different investment alternatives and development options for the domestic Kazakhstan capital market. The note concludes that neither the regulators nor industry participants appear to fully appreciate the risks attached to the practice of focusing on short-term and high-yield investments.

This paper presents a Detailed Assessment and Updates of Financial Sector Standards and Codes for Kazakhstan. The assessment reveals that although Kazakhstan's banking system is liquid, there are significant variations from bank to bank, with the distinctions between the tenge and foreign exchange liquidity being quite important. An appropriate body of commercial law is in place, and both banks and the supervisory authority express general satisfaction with the functioning of the systems for registration of collateral and enforcement of security interests.