Interest Rate Policies Stabilization And Bank Supervision In Developing Countries

This paper identifies macroeconomic stability, effective bank supervision, and an appropriate sequencing of stabilization, banking regulations, and interest rate policies as common characteristics of the relatively successful experiments in financial sector liberalization. Recent theoretical developments help to explain why interest rates in free markets for bank credit may fall short of market-clearing levels, or may rise to risky levels with adverse consequences for financial institutions and the economy at large. To prevent such outcomes, macro-economic stabilization and improved bank supervision should generally precede complete removal of control on bank interest rates.

In recent years, the appropriate level and structure of interest tates have come to be seen as major issues in connection with stabilization programs undertaken by members. These issues arise from consideration both on the demand side, as interest rates affect the magnitude of aggregate demand, and on the supply side, as they influence the volume and quality of investment and, thus, the growth of output.

This is a comprehensive state-of-the-art survey which analyzes institutions, policies and issues of central banking in developing countries including interest-free Islamic and transition economies. It discusses objectives and functions; monetary, exchange, supervisory and developmental roles; financial liberalization; informal finance; causes and implications of central bank losses. It critically evaluates currency boards, central bank independence, ceilings on government credit and suggests radical organizational reforms, divestiture of quasi-fiscal activities and partial privatization of central banks.

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

The transmission of monetary policy to credit aggregates and the real economy can be impaired by weaknesses in the contracting environment, shallow financial markets, and a concentrated banking system. We empirically assess the bank lending channel in Uganda during 2010–2014 using a supervisory dataset of loan applications and granted loans. Our analysis focuses on a short period during which the policy rate rose by 1,000 basis points and then came down by 1,200 basis points. We find that an increase in interest rates reduces the supply of bank credit both on the extensive and intensive margins, and there is significant pass-through to retail lending rates. We document a strong bank balance sheet channel, as the lending behavior of banks with high capital and liquidity is different from that of banks with low capital and liquidity. Finally, we show the impact of monetary policy on real activity across districts depends on banking sector conditions. Overall, our results indicate significant real effects of the bank lending channel in developing countries.

This paper undertakes a survey of theoretical considerations and an analysis of the experience of five African countries with interest rate liberalization. Despite substantial progress in monetary policy reforms, liberalization has only partially affected the level and variability of interest rates. Several factors—macroeconomic instability, oligopolistic financial markets, the absence of developed capital markets, as well as the sequencing of the liberalization programs and the asymmetric availability of information—explain the increase in the spread between lending and deposit rates as well as the rather inflexible pattern of interest rates during the transition to a market-based financial system.

The issue of economic development and monetary stability has produced one of the most passionate debates in economic literature. Yet, much of the evidence employed in this debate is contradictory. Monetary and Financial Policies in Developing Countries: Growth and Stabilization brings together diverse views on the subject within a coherent framework. The work includes: * a balanced assessment of empirical findings and their theoretical foundations on the role of money and growth * a discussion of financial liberalization reform in developing countries * an analysis of monetary policy as an instrument of economic stabilization * an examination of the monetary supply and demand process in developing countries * a study of the relationship between money, credit, the balance of payments, inflation and the exchange rate system * a reflection on market failures and the role of government.

The transmission of monetary policy to credit aggregates and the real economy can be impaired by weaknesses in the contracting environment, shallow financial markets, and a concentrated banking system. We empirically assess the bank lending channel in Uganda during 2010-2014 using a supervisory dataset of loan applications and granted loans. Our analysis focuses on a short period during which the policy rate rose by 1,000 basis points and then came down by 1,200 basis points. We find that an increase in interest rates reduces the supply of bank credit both on the extensive and intensive margins, and there is significant pass-through to retail lending rates. We document a strong bank balance sheet channel, as the lending behavior of banks with high capital and liquidity is different from that of banks with low capital and liquidity. Finally, we show the impact of monetary policy on real activity across districts depends on banking sector conditions. Overall, our results indicate significant real effects of the bank lending channel in developing countries. --Abstract.

This paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of the IMF’s multiregion econometric model (MULTIMOD). The study highlights that an older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging.