Infrastructure Investment In The Western Balkans

This study provides a first analysis of the recent development in infrastructure investment in the Western Balkans. It identifies infrastructure gaps as well as key infrastructure initiatives in the region, outlines the political dimension and provides the respective detailed infrastructure investment data as collected from the Western Balkans statistical offices.

An assessment of public infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. The paper quantifies the large gaps across various sectors/dimensions, evaluates current infrastructure plans, and discusses funding options available to countries in the region. The paper also identifies important bottlenecks for increased infrastructure investment. Finally, the paper quantifies potential growth benefits from addressing infrastructure gaps, concluding that boosting the quantity and quality of infrastructure is vital for raising economic growth and accelerating income convergence with the EU. The paper concludes with country-specific policy recommendations.

In a world on the brink of a global recession caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic, the infrastructure efforts of today and tomorrow are more crucial than ever.For one, they are an indispensable countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative effects of the economic paralysis.But they also constitute a pivotal component for a country’s development, raising its competitiveness in the long term. That is why infrastructure will continue to play a critical role even when the pandemic crisis has been tamed.Rapid demographic growth, increasing urbanization, especially in developing countries, coupled with the ounting challenge posed by climate change, are trends that are not going to disappear with the virus.How to cope with these global, long-term trends? How to finance the increasing need for infrastructure? Which major international actors will take the lead? And what role will technology play in shaping the future of infrastructure?

The Western Balkans have been a crossing point between Central Europe and the East for centuries. Devastated by tragic conflicts, nationalism and neglected investments, the Western Balkan countries are striving to find a new equilibrium. Citizens and institutions in the Balkans have repeatedly affirmed their ambition to become part of the European Union and have made significant efforts to turn this dream into reality. The European Investment Bank (EIB) has done a lot in this region over the past 20years. It has helped build pan-European transport corridors, supported direct foreign investment, helped redevelop urban areas, provided technical assistance and additional finance to enhance and develop social and economic infrastructure, and stimulated private sector growth to create jobs. Looking ahead, there is hope for a brighter and greener future for the Western Balkans. Matteo Rivellini is the Head of Division in charge of lending operations in Slovenia, Croatia and the Western Balkans at the EIB. This is the thirteenth essay in the Big Ideas series created by the European Investment Bank. The EIB has invited international thought leaders and experts to write about the most important issues of the day. These essays are a reminder that we need new thinking to protect the environment, promote equality and improve people's lives around the globe.

The Western Balkans are a region with a substantial economic catch-up potential. Compared to other European economies these countries are either poor or very poor. Structural underdevelopment and low competitiveness impede the catch-up process. Mass unemployment and a huge trade deficit indicate heavy internal and external imbalances. Short-run policy measures should focus on fiscal devaluation and NPL resolution to foster cost competitiveness and private investment. A 'Big Push' in infrastructure investment is imperative for long-term prosperity. An investment volume of EUR 7.7 billion as envisaged in the 'Berlin Process' has the potential for an additional GNP growth impulse of about 1% p.a. and a positive employment effect of up to 200,000 people in the region.

In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 shows that participation in GVCs can help small economies accelerate export and income growth. WB countries are not well integrated into Europe’s vibrant GVCs. Trade within the region is also limited—it tends to be bilateral and not cluster-like. Our analysis shows that by improving infrastructure and labor skills and adopting trade policies that ensure investor protection and harmonize regulations and legal provisions, the region can greatly enhance its engagement with GVCs. Services exports are an increasingly important part of global trade, and they offer an untapped source of growth. The magnitude of services exports from the WB region compares favorably with that of peers in Europe, particularly in travel services where several of these countries have a revealed comparative advantage. But there is significant room for growth in tourism exports and an untapped potential in business and information technology services exports that these countries can materialize through policy efforts that increase openness and enhance connectivity and labor skills. Serbia offers a good example of how decisive efforts, including education policies to ensure a sustained supply of skilled labor, can help information technology services exports to take off.

This title explores ways for the Western Balkan countries to improve growth prospects through deepening of regional integration and improving selected elements of their investment climate. It analyzes areas relating to trade in goods and services, regional integration, and selected aspects of the investment climate. It suggests that countries in the region could reap sustained growth payoffs by focusing on deepening regional integration, improving human capital, reducing telecommunication costs and pre-empting energy shortages.

This report examines the apparel, automotive components and business process/technology outsourcing sectors in the western Balkans, focusing on competitiveness factors and including policy recommendations.