Infinite Risk

Alone in the wrong timestream, Edie must navigate a new school and try to put her first love Kian on a different path, battling those who will stop at nothing to keep her from derailing their deadly schemes.

Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Natural and man-made risks have long been recognised as vital conditioning factors in the formation of social institutions and the conduct of social life. In this volume internationally recognised experts examine in detail the implications in practice of the modern concept of risk in particular legal fields. The chapters explore the ways in which the law in its many branches can accommodate, manage and reduce the extent of risk in the modern "Risk Society", matters of pressing importance for the development of all branches of law in all jurisdictions. The fields of activity affected by the issues discussed include law, medicine, insurance, state security and public health. The collection also contributes to comparative legal studies in respect of risk and the law, presenting a perspective which has largely been neglected outside the works of general theory. Thus the topics considered range from the civil law of injuries in Germany and the food law of the European Union, through sales of goods, including international sales, in English, German and French law, to the English law of torts. Risk and the Law, written by specialists who are authorities in their fields, will be of interest to academics and students who are interested in new developments and ideas regarding the relationship between risk, law and social change in many different fields.

The aim of this graduate textbook is to provide a comprehensive advanced course in the theory of statistics covering those topics in estimation, testing, and large sample theory which a graduate student might typically need to learn as preparation for work on a Ph.D. An important strength of this book is that it provides a mathematically rigorous and even-handed account of both Classical and Bayesian inference in order to give readers a broad perspective. For example, the "uniformly most powerful" approach to testing is contrasted with available decision-theoretic approaches.

This anthology brings together a diversity of key texts in the emerging field of Existential Risk Studies. It serves to complement the previous volume The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies by providing open access to original research and insights in this rapidly evolving field. At its heart, this book highlights the ongoing development of new academic paradigms and theories of change that have emerged from a community of researchers in and around the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. The chapters in this book challenge received notions of human extinction and civilization collapse and seek to chart new paths towards existential security and hope. The volume curates a series of research articles, including previously published and unpublished work, exploring the nature and ethics of catastrophic global risk, the tools and methodologies being developed to study it, the diverse drivers that are currently pushing it to unprecedented levels of danger, and the pathways and opportunities for reducing this. In each case, they go beyond simplistic and reductionist accounts of risk to understand how a diverse range of factors interact to shape both catastrophic threats and our vulnerability and exposure to them and reflect on different stakeholder communities, policy mechanisms, and theories of change that can help to mitigate and manage this risk. Bringing together experts from across diverse disciplines, the anthology provides an accessible survey of the current state of the art in this emerging field. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the cutting-edge research presented here makes this volume a key resource for researchers and academics. However, the editors have also prepared introductions and research highlights that will make it accessible to an interested general audience as well. Whatever their level of experience, the volume aims to challenge readers to take on board the extent of the multiple dangers currently faced by humanity, and to think critically and proactively about reducing global risk.

Gambling on God brings together a superb collection of new and classic essays that provide the first sustained analysis of Pascal's Wager and the idea of an infinite utility as well as the first in-depth look at moral objections to the Wager.

This book focuses on discussing the issues of rating scheme design and risk aggregation of risk matrix, which is a popular risk assessment tool in many fields. Although risk matrix is usually treated as qualitative tool, this book conducts the analysis from the quantitative perspective. The discussed content belongs to the scope of risk management, and to be more specific, it is related to quick risk assessment. This book is suitable for the researchers and practitioners related to qualitative or quick risk assessment and highly helps readers understanding how to design more convincing risk assessment tools and do more accurate risk assessment in a uncertain context.

In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.

A Sun within a Sun is a sustained poetic reflection on the enterprise of poetry, on what poetry is and might be, not only for poet and theorist but also for reader, critic, teacher, and student. It sees poetry as life at its most genuine.Using Baudelaire and Mallarme as principal examples, but drawing on a wide range of poets and thinkers, from Greek mythology to Poe, Rimbaud, Rilke, and Blake; from Nietzsche, Gilles Deleuze, and Italo Calvino to William James and Henry Miller, Claire Chi-ah Lyu challenges contemporary poetic theory, using precise and acute deconstruction of poetic imagery to reconstruct language so that it celebrates both meaning and beauty. A Sun within a Sun explores the notions of lightness and weight, discipline and indulgence, freedom and loss of will that are inherent in the poetic enterprise. It poses that lightness, discipline, freedom, and risk are essential for an approach to the enigma of beauty through an elegant shaping of form that holds true not only in poetry but also in pure science and even fashion. Poetry is a language within a language, a heightened and intense awareness of what words mean and what they can do, at its best creating an intensity of a sun within a sun. The poet and reader of poetry must take the risk Icarus took of approaching the sun, for without the risk there is no fulfillment.A Sun within a Sun seeks a shaping of form and content that discovers poetry as power, as a practice of life that honors and makes possible both thought and feeling.