Inequality And Finance In Macrodynamics

This contributed volume combines approaches of the current inequality debate with aspects of finance based on profound macroeconomic model analyses. Research on inequality has had a long tradition in economics. With the financial crisis from 2007, not only output decreased tremendously, but also inequality has risen since then. The book presents selected contributions of a workshop held at Bielefeld University in 2016 and features additional papers written by experts in the field. A mixture of established researchers and young scholars presents both theoretical and empirical frameworks to analyze the subject.

Finance and growth emerged as a distinct field of economics during the last three decades as economists integrated the fields of finance and economic growth and then explored the ramifications of the functioning of financial systems on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty. In this paper, I review theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth and inequality. While subject to ample qualifications, the preponderance of evidence suggests that (1) financial development—both the development of banks and stock markets—spurs economic growth and (2) better functioning financial systems foster growth primarily by improving resource allocation and technological change, not by increasing saving rates. Some research also suggests that financial development expands economic opportunities and tightens income distribution, primarily by boosting the incomes of the poor. This work implies that financial development fosters growth by expanding opportunities. Finally, and more tentatively, financial innovation—improvements in the ability of financial systems to ameliorate information and transaction costs—may be necessary for sustaining growth.

This dissertation consists of four essays in macro-finance, focusing on the cause and effect of asset prices, inequality, and welfare. In particular, these essays highlight the role of institutions and structural changes in shaping outcomes of asset markets and of the macro-economy. The two overarching objectives of these essays are to analyze mechanisms of asset price movements and to understand how these asset price movements affect the daily lives of people. The four chapters of this dissertation examine the implications of inertia and stock market non-participation for equity prices, risk sharing, and wealth inequality; causal effects of Chinese Communist Party's cadre promotion system on land prices in China; interconnection between homeownership and marriage; fiscal responses to income inequality shocks. The first chapter quantifies the general equilibrium effects of financial innovation that increases access to equity markets. I study an overlapping generations model with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, solved with machine learning techniques. A benchmark economy with limited stock market participation and rebalancing frictions matches the current dynamics of macro aggregates, equity and bond returns, as well as wealth and portfolio concentration. A counterfactual experiment shows how widespread adoption of target date funds would improve risk sharing, reduce inequality, and generate substantial welfare gains for households in the bottom 90% of wealth distribution. The equity premium drops from 6.4% to 1.7%, while the standard deviation of equity returns stabilizes from 21.9% to 14.6%. Welfare implications vary with risk aversion and age. In general, the bottom 90% benefit from improved access to equity markets and better risk sharing, while the top 10% su↵er losses in wealth accumulation. Outcomes are very close between an economy with target date funds and one without any participation costs or rebalancing frictions. The second chapter identifies the causal effect of the Chinese Communist Party's performance- based promotion system to the country's real estate boom from 2003 to 2015. City-level leaders prioritizing economic growth allocate land at discounted prices to industrial firms rather than housing developers. Our analysis reveals that personal connections with provincial superiors are crucial for promotion and hence affect local land and housing supply. When city leaders share the same hometown as newly appointed provincial leaders, their chances of promotion increase by 15%, and GDP performances no longer matters. This connection reduces the need for industrial land allocation, resulting in a higher residential land supply in the city. In addition, cities with leaders who have hometown connections experience significantly higher supplies of residential land, and housing price growth rates are also 5% lower in these cities. The third chapter studies the phenomenon of marriage house in China and its effects on demo- graphics and homeownership. We first show empirical evidence for the complementarity between marriage and homeownership: single males with a marriage house (a house where the newlywed can move into) have 70% higher odds of getting married compared to their counterparts who do not have a marriage house. In addition, the timing of home purchase exhibits a clear cut-o↵ around the time of marriage, with the probability of purchasing a house peaking 0-2 years before marriage and slumping immediately after the time of marriage. Moreover, in the cross section, county house prices and average age at marriage are highly correlated in both level and in growth rate. We then quantify the marriage related incentives for homeownership using a lifecycle consumption-savings model with housing demand and ownership-dependent marriage shocks. In a counterfactual world where the marriage-house complementarity is absent, 45% of households under age 45 would delay their home purchases. Removing the marriage house friction from the marriage market would have slowed down the rise in age at first marriage by 40% between 1995 and 2010. Our results suggest that policies directed at either housing affordability or demographics can have significant consequences for both marriage and housing markets in China. Using data on U.S. state and federal taxes and transfers over the last quarter century, the fourth chapter estimates a regression model that yields the marginal effect of any shift of market income share from one quintile to another on the entire post tax, post-transfer income distribution. We identify exogenous income distribution changes and account for reverse causality using instruments based on exposure to international trade shocks, international commodity price shocks and national industry demand shocks, as well as lagged endogenous variables, with controls for the level of income, the business cycle and demographics. We find attenuation initially increases in quintile rank, peaks at the middle quintile and then falls for higher income quintiles, consistent with median voter political economy theory and the Stiglitz Director's law. We also provide evidence of considerable and systematic spillover effects on quintiles neither gaining nor losing in the "experiments, " also favoring the middle quintile. "Voting" and "income insurance" coalition analyses are presented. We find a strong negative relationship between average real income and the degree to which taxes and transfers are heavily redistributive.

The study examines empirical relationships between income inequality and three features of finance: depth (financial sector size relative to the economy), inclusion (access to and use of financial services by individuals and firms), and stability (absence of financial distress). Using new data covering a wide range of countries, the analysis finds that the financial sector can play a role in reducing inequality, complementing redistributive fiscal policy. By expanding the provision of financial services to low-income households and small businesses, it can serve as a powerful lever in helping create a more inclusive society but—if not well managed—it can amplify inequalities.

The importance of understanding the relationship between macroeconomics and finance was brought into sharp relief by the recent financial crisis and ensuing recession. The papers collected in this Symposium and discussed in this Introduction attempt to shed light on this relationship.

The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.

A Kaleckian growth model is modified to incorporate working households who borrow to finance some part of their consumption spending. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of increased income inequality in the US. The results show that the precise manner in which debtor households service their debts has important effects on the economy's macrodynamics.

In Chapter 1, I study the effects of wealth inequality on economies where financial markets are imperfect. I exploit the idea that inequality should have a different effect across sectors. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, I show that sectors that are more in need of external finance are relatively smaller in countries with higher income inequality. I then build a model in which sectors differ in their fixed cost requirement, agents face collateral constraints, and production is subject to decreasing returns. A calibrated version of the model is consistent with the documented facts on inequality and cross-sector outcomes. At the calibrated parameters, wealth inequality exacerbates the effect of financial frictions on the economy. Quantitatively, wealth inequality can generate losses of up to 46 percent of per capita income. In Chapter 2, co-authored with Claire Lelarge and Michael Peters, we explore the ingredients that a model of import behavior should have in order to be consistent with the firm level evidence. We build a model where firms are heterogeneous in their factor neutral productivity, and prices, fixed costs and input qualities are common across firms. Using a comprehensive dataset of French firms, we test the qualitative predictions of such model. The model fares well in describing firm's expenditure across imported varieties, but fails to account for the pattern of expenditure between domestic and foreign inputs. We conclude that a mechanism inducing firm-level heterogeneity in the relative price of domestic varieties is needed to model import demand. In Chapter 3, I study the effects of financial frictions on the pattern of cross-industry growth rates. I document two facts: (i) externally dependent sectors tend to grow faster along the economy's development path, and (ii) externally dependent sectors grow disproportionately faster in countries with better financial institutions. I argue that financial frictions can account for these facts. I build a dynamic two-sector model in which sectors differ in their liquidity requirement and agents face collateral constraints. Financial frictions generate faster growth in the sector with higher liquidity requirement. I identify conditions under which financial development leads to higher excess growth in the externally dependent sector.

Alfred Eichner's pioneering contributions to post-Keynesian econmics offered significant insights on the way modern economies and institutions actually work. Published in 1987, his "Macrodynamics of Advanced Market Economies" contains rich chapters on dynamics and growth, investment, finance and income distribution, a timely chapter on the State and fiscal policy, and two analytical chapters on endogenous money that are years ahead of their time. Featuring chapters by many of Eichner's disciples, this book celebrates his rich contributions to post-Keynesian economics, and demonstrates that his work is in many ways as valid today as it was over two decades ago.

An in-depth guide to global and risk finance based on financial models and data-based issues that confront global financial managers. Globalization, Gating, and Risk Finance offers perspectives on global risk finance in a world with economies in transition. Developed from lectures and research projects investigating the consequences of globalization and strategic approaches to fundamental economics and finance, it provides an approach based on financial models and data; it includes many case-study problems. The book departs from the traditional macroeconomic and financial approaches to global and strategic risk finance, where economic power and geopolitical issues are intermingled to create complex and forward-looking financial systems. Chapter coverage includes: Globalization: Economies in Collision; Data, Measurements, and Global Finance; Global Finance: Utility, Financial Consumption, and Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics, Foreign Exchange, and Global Finance; Foreign Exchange Models and Prices; Asia: Financial Environment and Risks; Financial Currency Pricing, Swaps, Derivatives, and Complete Markets; Credit Risk and International Debt; Globalization and Trade: A Changing World; and Compliance and Financial Regulation. Provides a framework for global financial and inclusive models, some of which are not commonly covered in other books. Considers risk management, utility, and utility-based multi-agent financial theories. Presents a theoretical framework to assist with a variety of problems ranging from derivatives and FX pricing to bond default to trade and strategic regulation. Provides detailed explanations and mathematical proofs to aid the readers’ understanding. Globalization, Gating, and Risk Finance is appropriate as a text for graduate students of global finance, general finance, financial engineering, and international economics, and for practitioners.