Hm Treasury Analysis

"On 23 June 2016, the British people will make the most important decision for a generation - whether the United Kingdom (UK) should remain a member of the European Union (EU). This document provides rigorous and objective economic analysis of the long-term impact of remaining a member of the EU compared to the alternatives. The HM Treasury analysis uses a widely adopted gravity modelling approach, which distinguishes the specific effect of EU membership and the alternatives from all the other influences that determine trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). The consequences for productivity and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are then estimated based on the most relevant external evidence on the impact of trade and HM Treasury modelling of FDI. Through a range of realistic assumptions, many of them cautious, the HM Treasury analysis produces robust estimates, which are within the range of external studies."--Executive summary.

This new edition incorporates revised guidance from H.M Treasury which is designed to promote efficient policy development and resource allocation across government through the use of a thorough, long-term and analytically robust approach to the appraisal and evaluation of public service projects before significant funds are committed. It is the first edition to have been aided by a consultation process in order to ensure the guidance is clearer and more closely tailored to suit the needs of users.

"This document assesses the immediate economic impact of a vote for the UK to leave the EU. A vote to leave would cause a profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment. Two scenarios have been modelled to provide analysis of the adverse impact on the economy: a 'shock' to the economy, and a 'severe shock'."--Detail.

Dated October 2007. The publication is effective from October 2007, when it replaces "Government accounting". Annexes to this document may be viewed at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk

Based on the findings of a commission chaired by James Mirrlees, this volume presents a coherent picture of tax reform whose aim is to identify the characteristics of a good tax system for any open developed economy, assess the extent to which the UK tax system conforms to these ideals, and recommend how it might be reformed in that direction.

The Review was chaired by Nobel Laureate Professor Sir James Mirrlees of the University of Cambridge and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. --

The Treasury's Asset Protection Scheme to protect over £280 billion of Royal Bank of Scotland's financial assets against losses has, so far, only been partially successful in encouraging lending to creditworthy borrowers on the scale originally envisaged. The Scheme, launched in early 2009, initially involved two banks. RBS eventually put £282 billion of assets into the Scheme, while Lloyds Banking Group paid £2.5 billion to exit the Scheme in November 2009 and instead raised additional capital from shareholders. The principal elements of the Scheme, particularly the first loss, were based on a robust assessment of incentives and on as complete information on the underlying assets as were available at the time. As part of the Scheme, Lloyds and RBS agreed lending targets. While both banks met targets for mortgage lending, there was a shortfall of £30 billion against targets for lending to business. Value for money in the longer term will depend heavily on incentives built into the Scheme to encourage good management of assets. Establishing a requirement for RBS to bear the first £60 billion of losses (a 'first loss') was crucial in providing the right incentive for the bank to manage its assets effectively. However, if the first loss is exceeded, RBS will have less financial incentive to avoid further losses although the bank considers it will still have a legal and moral obligation to manage the assets as best it can. The position of taxpayers would be particularly vulnerable if losses were to exceed about £73 billion

In 2009-10, public expenditure rose to 48 per cent of GDP whilst income fell to 37 per cent, resulting in the largest deficit in Britain's peacetime history. This Spending Review sets out how the Coalition Government will carry out its deficit reduction plan. Particular focus has been given to reducing welfare costs and wasteful spending. This has enabled the Coalition Government to prioritise the NHS, schools, early years' provision and the capital investments designed to support long term economic growth. Departmental budgets other than health and overseas aid will be cut by an average of 19 per cent over four years. Key areas of Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) in addition to Departmental Expenditure Limits (DELs) for each government department and for the devolved administrations are covered. The Review sets out departmental spending plans for the four years until 2014-15 and further savings and reforms to welfare, environmental levies and public service pensions. The Review protects high value transport maintenance and investment, maintains the science budget, invests in apprenticeships and the low carbon economy and allows universities to increase fees from the 2012-13 academic year. Fundamental reforms will simplify the welfare system and make net savings of �7 billion a year. Social housing will be reformed and social care will receive an additional �2 billion by 2014-15. Public service reform underpins the Review: decentralisation of power; cutting burdens and regulations on front-line staff; improving transparency, efficiency and accountability of local services. Local government will have greater freedom but must work within reduced allocations. Public sector pensions will be reformed in line with Lord Hutton's recommendations. Central government administration costs will be cut by 34 per cent by 2014-15. Government departments will produce business plans later in 2010 detailing reform plans and priorities.