Hierarchical Decision Making In Stochastic Manufacturing Systems

One of the most important methods in dealing with the optimization of large, complex systems is that of hierarchical decomposition. The idea is to reduce the overall complex problem into manageable approximate problems or subproblems, to solve these problems, and to construct a solution of the original problem from the solutions of these simpler prob lems. Development of such approaches for large complex systems has been identified as a particularly fruitful area by the Committee on the Next Decade in Operations Research (1988) [42] as well as by the Panel on Future Directions in Control Theory (1988) [65]. Most manufacturing firms are complex systems characterized by sev eral decision subsystems, such as finance, personnel, marketing, and op erations. They may have several plants and warehouses and a wide variety of machines and equipment devoted to producing a large number of different products. Moreover, they are subject to deterministic as well as stochastic discrete events, such as purchasing new equipment, hiring and layoff of personnel, and machine setups, failures, and repairs.

We present a new paradigm of hierarchical decision making in production planning and capacity expansion problems under uncertainty. We show that under reasonable assumptions, the strategic level management can base the capacity decision on aggregated information from the shop floor, and the operational level management, given this decision, can derive a production plan for the system, without too large a loss in optimality when compared to simultaneous determination of optimal capacity and The results are obtained via an asymptotic analysis of a manufacturing system with convex costs, constant demand, and with machines subject to random breakdown and repair. The decision variables are purchase time of a new machine at a given fixed cost and production plans before and after the costs of investment, production, inventories, and backlogs. If the rate of change in machine states such as up and down is assumed to be much larger than the rate of discounting costs, one obtains a simpler limiting mean. We develop methods for constructing asymptotically optimal decisions for the original problem from the optimal decisions for the limiting problem. We obtain error estimates for these constructed decisions.

This book articulates a new theory that shows that hierarchical decision making can in fact lead to a near optimization of system goals. The material in the book cuts across disciplines. It will appeal to graduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, operations management, operations research, and system and control theory.

We present an approach of hierarchical decision making in production planning and capacity expansion problems under uncertainty. We show that under reasonable assumptions, the strategic level management can base the capacity decision on aggregated information from the shopfloor, and the operational level management, given this decision, can derive a production plan for the system, without too large a loss in optimality when compared to simultaneous determination of optimal capacity and production decisions.The results are obtained via an asymptotic analysis of hierarchical investment and production decisions in a manufacturing system with machines subject to breakdown and repair. The demand facing the system is assumed to be a deterministic monotone increasing function. The production capacity can be increased by purchasing a finite number of new machines over time. The control variables are a sequence of purchasing times and a production plan. The rate of change in machine states is assumed to be much larger than the rate of discounting of costs. This gives rise to a limiting problem in which the stochastic machine availability is replaced by the equilibrium mean availability. The value function for the original problem converges to the value function of the limiting problem. Three different methods are developed for constructing decisions for the original problem from the optimal solution of the limiting problem in a way which guarantees the asymptotic optimality of constructed decisions. Finally, it is shown that as the number of machine that could be purchased tends to infinity, the problem approximates the corresponding problem with no limit on number of machine purchases.

This paper presents an asymptotic analysis of hierarchical marketing-production systems with stochastic demand and stochastic production capacity modelled as finite state Markov processes. The decision variables used are advertising and production rates which influence capacity, demand, and inventory levels. The objective of this paper is to maximize the expected total discounted profit over an infinite horizon. The authors are interested in situations in which the rate of change in capacity states is an order of magnitude different from the rate of change in demand states. These give rise to upper-level problems in which the stochastic capacity is replaced by the average capacity and/or the random demand is replaced by the average demand. Controls for the corresponding lower-level problems in different cases can be constructed from nearly optimal controls of the upper-level problems in a way that guarantees their asymptotic optimality.

This paper is concernced with hierarchical decisions regarding production and investment in capacity in manufacturing systems with production subject to breakdown and repair. The production capacity can be increased by investing continuously in new capacity which is available upon completion. The decision variables are the rates of production and investment in capacity. The investment rate is assumed to have an upper bound. If, as assumed, the rates of breakdown and repair of production equipment are much larger than the rate of discounting of costs, the given problem can be approximated by a simpler problem in which the stochastic production capacity is replaced by the average capacity. Asymptotically optimal controls for the given problem are constructed from nearly optimal controls of the limiting problem. In addition, we analyze the behavior of the solution as the investment rate is allowed to become arbitrarily large.

Most manufacturing systems are large and complex and operate in an uncertain environment. One approach to managing such systems is that of hierarchical decomposition. This paper reviews the research devoted to proving that a hierarchy based on the frequencies of occurrence of different types of events in the systems results in decisions that are asymptotically optimal as the rates of some events become large compared to those of others. The paper also reviews the research on stochastic optimal control problems associated with manufacturing systems, their dynamic programming equations, existence of solutions of these equations, and verification theorems of optimality for the systems. Manufacturing systems that are addressed include single machine systems, dynamic fowshops, and dynamic jobshops producing multiple products. These systems may also incorporate random production capacity and demands, and decisions such as production rates, capacity expansion, and promotional campaigns are also presented.

This chapter describes an open problem in optimal control arising in the context of hierarchical decision making in stochastic manufacturing systems.

Most manufacturing systems are large and complex and operate in an uncertain environment. One approach to managing such systems is that of hierarchical decomposition. This paper reviews the research devoted to proving that a hierarchy based on the frequencies of occurrence of different types of events in the system results in decisions that are asymptotically optimal as the rates of some events become large compared to those of others. Manufacturing systems that are addressed include single machine systems, flowshops, and jobshops producing multiple products, incorporate random production capacity and demands, and involve such decisions as production rates, capacity expansion, and promotional campaigns. The paper concludes with a review of computational results and areas of applications.

Most manufacturing systems are large, complex, and operate in an environment of uncertainty. It is common practice to manage such systems in a hierarchical fashion. This book articulates a new theory that shows that hierarchical decision making can in fact lead to a near optimization of system goals. The material in the book cuts across disciplines. It will appeal to graduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, operations management, operations research, and system and control theory.