Future Trends From Past Cycles

Harnessing probabilities with groundbreaking precision Future Trends from Past Cycles explains how to identify potential future trends and turning points in equity prices (short, long and medium-term) by analysing past cycles in market data. Brian Millard's renowned technical expertise and mathematical insight forms the basis of this fascinating guide, built around a blend of cycle, channel and probability analysis. With a thoroughly documented methodology, and numerous worked examples at every step of the process, this is an exceptionally lucid and insightful contribution to the literature of technical analysis. It will help the trader to harness probabilities to their advantage, and to limit their risk, with greater precision than ever before. Finding the key 10% with a trading triple lock This book teaches you how to use cycles in your trading in a way that hasn't been attempted previously. At its heart are the three disciplines of cycle, channel and probability analysis, which ensure a triple lock on probability - massively reducing the blind spots and speculative nature common to more one-dimensional technical approaches. While the general view of technical analysts is that virtually all securities can be analysed for future movement, the detailed workings and research in this book shows that this is not the case. Only a small number, around 10%, have cycles which extrapolation shows to be currently in a stable state and which therefore would appear to be predictable. Brian Millard details the mechanics of identifying this 10% - estimating the stability of trend positions, drawing probability boundaries for price positions, and deducing the core probability of any given price trend. He looks closely at the various forms of risk at play in the markets, uncovers the hidden mathematics of price movement, and shows how to simulate future movements; as well as presenting ideas on the best new ways to read cycles, evaluate mathematical trends, plot moving averages and anticipate turning points. Like the work of J. M. Hurst, Millard's forbear, Future Trends "shows what is possible when approaching the markets with a measured, logical technique based on firm mathematical and scientific logic". It is the essential final book from an acclaimed technical analyst and author.

NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next. Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.

"The Life/Death Rhythms of Ancient Empires" outlines the flow of history from 3000BC to 1400AD to identify the factors that make up dominant, just, prosperous civilisations that can be described as golden cultures. These factors were found to have common features and the cultures themselves could be described in cyclical terms. This meant that the rise and fall of future dominant cultures could be roughly forecast to some degree in terms of hundreds of years. The evolution of capitalism was made possible, during and after actual warfare, by ancient priests and bankers, assisted by the invention of coinage. Capitalism was practised in the ancient world, supported at times by warfare and religion. It was vanquished for centuries by powerful weapons called irresponsible debt, and debasement of currency. The global capitalism of the twenty-first century is dependent on debt and a debased US dollar. A review of ancient history provides the basis for a glimpse into the future. This century's global temperature increase, which so excites environmentalists, can be shown to be part of a thousand year climate cycle. There well might be a human element to global warming but this just exacerbates the centuries' long cyclical pattern. Research has shown that periods of hot-dry and cold-dry climate have effects on human behaviour. Extrapolation of cycles enables forecasts of human behaviour to be made well into the new millennium. Dominant prosperous societies have occurred at roughly 200 year intervals which can suggest time-lines for societies in the present and the future A relatively irreverent history of ancient cultures, war, religion, money and debt produces cyclical analysis enabling a forecast that the USA might lose world dominance in 2040. The next volume "Life/Death Rhythms from the Capitalist Renaissance" will include economic data that will allow refined cyclical forecasts.

This critical analysis of long-term trends and recent developments in world systems examines such questions as: Will the cycles of boom and bust, peace and war of the past 500 years continue? Or have either long-term trends or recent changes so profoundly altered the structure of world systems that these cycles will end or take on a less destructive form? The noted international contributors to this volume examine the question of future dominance of the core global systems and include comprehensive discussions of the economic, political and military role of the Pacific Rim, Japan and the former Soviet Union.

Become a Savvy Trend Trader with the Ultimate Guide to the Stock Market! In "Stock Market Trends: Understanding and Capitalizing on Market Cycles," you will embark on a fascinating journey exploring the enigmatic world of stock market trends and cycles. This comprehensive guide demystifies the complex mechanisms of the stock market and equips you with the knowledge and strategies you need to capitalize on these trends. The book starts with an in-depth introduction to the stock market, its key players, and the fundamental concepts of stocks and shares. You'll dive into the history of stock market trends and their global impact, uncovering valuable insights from the past. Moving forward, you'll delve into the intricate patterns of market cycles and the dynamism of bull and bear markets. The book elucidates various economic indicators that influence market trends and demonstrates how to interpret them effectively. As you progress, you'll master diverse analysis techniques, learn about risk management, and explore practical trading strategies that align with different market phases. The guide also teaches you how to manage your investment portfolio and shares compelling case studies of successful trend traders. The book concludes by shedding light on the art of predicting market trends and preparing for the future of trading, ensuring you're equipped to navigate the ever-evolving landscape of stock market trading. Whether you're an investing novice or an experienced trader seeking to refine your understanding of market trends, this book is an invaluable resource. It combines rigorous technical information with engaging, accessible writing and a dash of humor to keep you entertained as you learn. Grab your copy today and take the first step towards becoming a proficient trend trader in the exhilarating world of the stock market!

The cyclical boom-to-recession nature of the economics of cocoa supply is a major problem for the international cocoa industry - and especially for countries whose economies depend on cocoa exports. Only through an understanding of the dynamics of cocoa cycles can policy decisions be made through the various phases of supply cycles. Based on a major international cocoa conference, this book presents seventeen edited papers from leading experts, making a major contribution to that understanding. It explains the powerful economic, social and political factors which impact on the cocoa economy. It shows the laws of cocoa supply are closely linked to environmental, ecological and institutional factors.

The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter.

A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets. We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets, and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result. If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed. By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.

One of the best classical methods of technical analysis brought up to date This book offers a modern treatment of Hurst's original system of market cycle analysis. It will teach you how to get to the point where you can isolate cycles in any freely-traded financial instrument and make an assessment of their likely future course. Although Hurst's methodology can seem outwardly complex, the logic underpinning it is straightforward. With practice the skill needed to conduct a full cycle analysis quickly and effectively will become second nature. The rewards for becoming adept are high conviction trades, tight risk management and mastery of a largely non-correlated system of analysis. In this extensive step-by-step guide you will find a full description of the principal tools and techniques taught by Hurst as well as over 120 colour charts, together with tables and diagrams. The Updata and TradeStation code for all of the indicators shown is also included.