From Climate Risk To Resilience Unpacking The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Malawi

Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country. Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management. The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

Mozambique is already vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change is projected to exacerbate their frequency and intensity. The occurrence of cyclones and flooding has increased in recent years and the trend is expected to continue. The country’s coast—where 60 percent of the population, the three biggest cities, and critical infrastructure are situated—is most exposed to climate change-related risks, including damage from cyclones and projected sea level rise. Densely populated and low-lying regions, such as Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala, and Maputo Provinces, are particularly exposed to risks from flooding. More broadly, climate change is projected to increase average temperatures across the country and to result in higher variability in precipitation, especially in the south. The most critical economic sectors vulnerable to climate change in Mozambique are agriculture, transport, and potentially energy. In agriculture, maize is likely to be the most affected key crop. This can pose risks to food security (alongside expected higher food inflation because of climate change), given maize’s widespread cultivation and role in nutrition. The impact on other crops is likely to be more limited, and to a large extent driven by damages from increased frequency of extreme weather events. This could exacerbate challenges in the sector, which is already constrained by low productivity and limited arable areas. That said, climate change could create some opportunities; for example, rice yields are projected to improve. Most studies project agricultural production in the central region to be most adversely affected by climate change, albeit the impact varies by crop and within regions. Mozambique’s transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the projected increase in flooding, the low proportion of paved roads, their limited interconnectivity, and the vulnerability of ports to cyclones and storm surges. Damages to Mozambique’s transport sector are likely to have knock-on effects to other sectors and can have significant regional implications, as the country serves as a conduit for landlocked neighboring countries. Infrastructure damages, alongside the projected coastal erosion, may severely affect the tourism sector. Furthermore, Mozambique’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to losses from rainfall variability, which is expected to increase. The country’s largest hydropower plant is located downstream on the Zambezi River, which various studies project to dry up due to climate change. Increased water use in upstream countries (such as because of greater irrigation needs and in response to growing populations) could also pose risks to Mozambique’s hydropower sector.

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in average temperatures in Zambia and a decline in rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions. The country experiences high rainfall variability, which climate change is expected to exacerbate, resulting in likely higher frequency and intensity of already reoccurring extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. The combined effect of the temperature and precipitation projections is anticipated to cause a decrease in water availability at national level and to adversely affect the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins. Overall, these trends will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in southwestern Zambia, as the region is already prone to droughts (as well as floods in some parts). On the other hand, the northern parts of the country are projected to experience a slight increase in rainfall and to be overall relatively positively affected by climate change. The key sectors most likely to be significantly affected by climate change in Zambia include agriculture, road infrastructure, and energy. In agriculture, the key risk stemming from climate change is the projected lower maize yields, as this is the country’s staple crop. Other crops are also expected to be adversely affected by higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased occurrence of extreme events, particularly in southern and western Zambia. That said, changing climate conditions could create new agricultural opportunities in the north. Climate change is projected to negatively affect the livestock subsector, which will increase food security risks, particularly for subsistence farmers. In road infrastructure, the projected higher occurrence of flooding, especially in Lusaka Province, could have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, particularly if it damages key international corridors passing through this region and/or affects domestic supply chains. Zambia is significantly reliant on hydropower and is already experiencing severe power cuts due to drought. The risks in the sector are exacerbated by the location of key hydropower plants in the southern parts of the country and the projected drying up of main river basins. The electricity shortages have spillover effects on the rest of the economy, including the copper industry, Zambia’s key export. This has international implications, as Zambia is a top copper producer worldwide, and demand for copper is expected to increase significantly due to its crucial role in various green technologies. Thus, absent adaptation measures, the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia could affect global mitigation efforts and strategies.

This study investigates possible climate change patterns over the period 2040 to 2070 in order to assess the potential economic impacts for crop-livestock integrating and non-integrating farmers in Mzimba district in northern Malawi. Thirty year historical climate data were used with 20 Global Circulation Models (GCM) to generate plausible future climates. Future maize yields then were simulated using the APSIM crop model. The Trade-Off Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) framework was used with the crop model results for economic analysis.

This Country Climate and Development Report aims to support Malawi's efforts to achieve its development goals within a changing climate by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the economy and highlighting key policies and interventions that are needed to strengthen climate resilience. The analysis includes climate modeling across multiple scenarios to account for the inherent uncertainty in climate projections; and sector-by-sector analysis and assessment of economywide impacts to identify the biggest impacts. It examines Malawi's current policy landscape and identifies needed reforms; considers how Malawi can best protect its most vulnerable households; and considers how the country can finance its ambitious development and climate agenda, including the key role of the private sector. The analysis shows that climate change will impose large costs on the economy and on already vulnerable households. If Malawi stays on its current low-growth development trajectory, climate change could reduce GDP by 3-9 percent in 2030, 6-20 percent in 2040, and 8-16 percent by 2050). The analysis also clearly demonstrates that development, as set out in Malawi's Vision 2063, provides a strong basis for strengthening resilience to climate impacts. If Malawi was to accelerate implementation of policies and programs envisioned in the Vision 2063 the development trajectory would shift to a higher growth path and climate change impacts would be significantly reduced. But the Vision 2063 development path will not be enough and building greater resilience to climate change will require doing different things and doing things differently. With additional adaptation measures, the analysis shows that not only is the impact of climate change on GDP much smaller, GDP is higher with climate change and adaptation when compared to the counterfactual with no climate impacts; losses range from -1 to 3 percent in 2030 and 2040, and 1 to 4 percent in 2050.

While major strides have been made in the scientific understanding of climate change, much less understood is how these dynamics in the physical enviornment interact with socioeconomic systems. This book brings together the latest knowledge on the consequences of climate change for society and how best to address them.

Drawing on concepts in political economy, political ecology, justice theory, and critical development studies, the authors offer the first comprehensive, systematic exploration of the ways in which adaptation projects can produce unintended, undesirable results. This work is on the Global Policy: Next Generation list of six key books for understanding the politics of global climate change.

The impacts of climate change are already being felt. Learning how to live with these impacts is a priority for human development. In this context, it is too easy to see adaptation as a narrowly defensive task – protecting core assets or functions from the risks of climate change. A more profound engagement, which sees climate change risks as a product and driver of social as well as natural systems, and their interaction, is called for. Adaptation to Climate Change argues that, without care, adaptive actions can deny the deeper political and cultural roots that call for significant change in social and political relations if human vulnerability to climate change associated risk is to be reduced. This book presents a framework for making sense of the range of choices facing humanity, structured around resilience (stability), transition (incremental social change and the exercising of existing rights) and transformation (new rights claims and changes in political regimes). The resilience-transition-transformation framework is supported by three detailed case study chapters. These also illustrate the diversity of contexts where adaption is unfolding, from organizations to urban governance and the national polity. This text is the first comprehensive analysis of the social dimensions to climate change adaptation. Clearly written in an engaging style, it provides detailed theoretical and empirical chapters and serves as an invaluable reference for undergraduate and postgraduate students interested in climate change, geography and development studies.

This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.