From Climate Change To Cyber Attacks Incipient Financial Stability Risks For The Euro Area

The European Central Bank's November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. It also discusses sovereign-debt concerns in case interest rates increase, and risks arising from household and corporate debt. It assesses the risks from a possible overvaluation of asset prices, and evaluates risks within the banking and non-banking system, and climate risks. On the whole, the ECB report is comprehensive and covers the main risks to euro-area financial stability. However, some issues deserve more attention. First, the assessment of risks in the housing market should be more nuanced. Current housing markets relative to those pre-crisis seem to be far less driven by mortgage credit, and the size of the construction sector has not increased. This is possibly good news for financial stability because a house price correction would transmit less into mortgage defaults and corrections to economic activity. Second, there should be greater emphasis on changes in market expectations of interest rates, which can have substantial effects on asset prices. This could be particularly relevant if interest rate changes are not driven by real-economy developments. Third, the financial system relies on a safe asset as a reference. We show that the supply of safe sovereign assets in the euro area has fallen dramatically, driven by deteriorating sovereign credit ratings and reduced supplies of bonds from the safest countries. More safe assets would support financial stability. Fourth, though climate risks to financial stability must be taken seriously, risk weights on green assets should not be reduced since they still contain normal financial stability risks. Instead, risk weights for brown assets should be increased. Fifth, the ECB does not consider cybersecurity and hybrid threats in its assessment. These threats are significant risks for financial institutions and at the more systemic level. Policies to address financial-stability concerns include macroprudential measures. In this respect, we discover discrepancies between EU countries: countries with the same levels of house-price overvaluation have adopted very different macroprudential measures. Some countries might thus have done too much, while others have done too little. When it comes to preventing the next recession or reducing its impact, we argue that EU policymakers need to be better prepared to use discretionary fiscal policy earlier and more forcefully, in particular because the ability of monetary authorities to react to the next cyclical downturn is very limited.

The November 2019 European Central Bank Financial Stability Review is a very comprehensive report, covering the key risks to financial stability in the euro area. We summarise the report's main conclusions and complement them with our analysis of housing markets, market interest rate expectations and safe assets, from a financial stability perspective. We emphasise financial stability risks related to climate change and cybersecurity. We compare housing market vulnerabilities and the implementation of macroprudential policies in euro area countries.

This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742

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This SPR Departmental Paper will provide policymakers with a framework for studying changes to national data policy frameworks.

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In its fourth edition, this report focuses on recent developments in Africa's banking sectors and the policy options for all stakeholders. The study of banking sectors across all African sub-regions includes the results of the EIB survey of banking groups operating in Africa. Three thematic chapters address challenges and opportunities for financing investment in Africa: Crowding out of private sector lending by public debt issuance The state of bank recovery and resolution laws in Africa Policy options on how to finance infrastructure development. The report finds that in many African banking markets, the last two years saw a pause in financial deepening. However, a rising share of banking groups report improving market conditions and plan a structural expansion of their operations in Africa and a continued push for new technologies.

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This volume is now the eighth in the annual series sponsored by BBVA as part of its OpenMind initiative, which is devoted to disseminating knowledge on key issues of our time. The Search for Europe analyses the present and future of the old continent and its integration project, surely the most ambitious political and economic integration project ever attempted in history, a benchmark for similar processes in other regions. The book is divided into three main sections: "The economic foundations of the European project", "Europe and its nations: Politics, society and culture", and "The unresolved Limits of Europe and the new global powers". It features pieces written by international experts such as Javier Solana, Barry Eichengreen, Philip Cooke, Bichara Khader, Vivien Ann Schmidt, John Peet and Thomas Christiansen, among others.