Foreign Affairs Research

A discerning analysis of the future effects of climate change on Russia, the major power most dependent on the fossil fuel economy. Russia will be one of the countries most affected by climate change. No major power is more economically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons; at the same time, two-thirds of Russia’s territory lies in the arctic north, where melting permafrost is already imposing growing damage. Climate change also brings drought and floods to Russia’s south, threatening the country’s agricultural exports. Thane Gustafson predicts that, over the next thirty years, climate change will leave a dramatic imprint on Russia. The decline of fossil fuel use is already underway, and restrictions on hydrocarbons will only tighten, cutting fuel prices and slashing Russia’s export revenues. Yet Russia has no substitutes for oil and gas revenues. The country is unprepared for the worldwide transition to renewable energy, as Russian leaders continue to invest the national wealth in oil and gas while dismissing the promise of post-carbon technologies. Nor has the state made efforts to offset the direct damage that climate change will do inside the country. Optimists point to new opportunities—higher temperatures could increase agricultural yields, the melting of arctic ice may open year-round shipping lanes in the far north, and Russia could become a global nuclear-energy supplier. But the eventual post-Putin generation of Russian leaders will nonetheless face enormous handicaps, as their country finds itself weaker than at any time in the preceding century. Lucid and thought-provoking, Klimat shows how climate change is poised to alter the global order, potentially toppling even great powers from their perches.

A telling history of one of the most important relationships in the Middle East This is the first book to tell the remarkable story of the relationship between Jordan and the United States and how their leaders have navigated the dangerous waters of the most volatile region in the world. Jordan has been an important ally of the United States for more than seventy years, thanks largely to two members of the Hashemite family: King Hussein, who came to power at the age of 17 in 1952 and governed for nearly a half-century, and his son, King Abdullah, who inherited the throne in 1999. Both survived numerous assassination attempts, wars, and plots by their many enemies in the region. Both ruled with a firm hand but without engaging in the dictatorial extremes so common to the region. American presidents from Eisenhower to Biden have worked closely with the two Hashemite kings to maintain peace and stability in the region—when possible. The relationship often has been rocky, punctuated by numerous crises, but in the end, it has endured and thrived. Long-time Middle East expert Bruce Riedel tells the story of the U.S.-Jordanian relationship with his characteristic insight, flair, and eye for telling details. For anyone interested in the region, understanding this story will provide new insights into the Arab-Israeli conflict, the multiple Persian Gulf wars, and the endless quest to bring long-term peace and stability to the region.

This book focuses on foreign policy decision-making from the viewpoint of psychology. Psychology is always present in human decision-making, constituted by its structural determinants but also playing its own agency-level constitutive and causal roles, and therefore it should be taken into account in any analysis of foreign policy decisions. The book analyses a wide variety of prominent psychological approaches, such as bounded rationality, prospect theory, belief systems, cognitive biases, emotions, personality theories and trust to the study of foreign policy, identifying their achievements and added value as well as their limitations from a comparative perspective. Understanding how leaders in world politics act requires us to consider recent advances in neuroscience, psychology and behavioral economics. As a whole, the book aims at better integrating various psychological theories into the study of international relations and foreign policy analysis, as partial explanations themselves but also as facets of more comprehensive theories. It also discusses practical lessons that the psychological approaches offer since ignoring psychology can be costly: decision-makers need to be able reflect on their own decision-making process as well as the perspectives of the others. Paying attention to the psychological factors in international relations is necessary for better understanding the microfoundations upon which such agency is based.