Financial Risk Analysis Of Infrastructure Debt

The water and power industries, including the most capital-intensive producers of goods and services in our economy, are exposed to financial risks of staggering proportions. With projects that are routinely large and require long-term planning, and with demand and supply often highly volatile, costs regularly defy prediction. Still, there has been little explicit analysis of financial risk in the water and power industries. In this work, C. Vaughan Jones provides a comprehensive discussion of financial risk and risk analysis for these utilities. Writing in clear, straightforward language, he explores the application of risk analysis to construction projects, rate-setting and price effects, and customer characteristics. In developing a method for evaluating risk, Jones brings together material from business, engineering, economics, demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy studies. The materials are organized around risk factors affecting costs and revenues, and support a practical analysis with spreadsheet and simulation examples. Separate chapters present findings relating to the variability of construction costs, customer demand, and population growth. Together with qualitative information about risks, these chapters offer suggestions about quantitative representation of relevant patterns of variability of key risk sources. The techniques are integrated in simulation models dealing with contract risk, the evaluation of sinking funds and amortization schedules, and long-run capacity planning. The concluding chapters summarize major findings, consider issues of reliability and validation, and discuss the way in which this analysis can be applied to a variety of infrastructure investments. Finance and investment professionals and students in business and finance studies will find this work to be a useful reference tool. For public and academic libraries, it will represent a valuable addition to their collections.

Infrastructure and its effects on economic growth, social welfare, and sustainability receive a great deal of attention today. There is widespread agreement that infrastructure is a key dimension of global development and that its impact reaches deep into the broader economy with important and multifaceted implications for social progress. At the same time, infrastructure finance is among the most complex and challenging areas in the global financial architecture. Ingo Walter, Professor Emeritus of Finance, Corporate Governance and Ethics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and his team of experts tackle the issue by focussing on key findings backed by serious theoretical and empirical research. The result is a set of viable guideposts for researchers, policy-makers, students and anybody interested in the varied challenges of the contemporary economy.

In light of the recent financial crisis in Europe and the increasing importance of sustainability in construction, insights and practical guidance for financial evaluation and risk management of infrastructure projects are extremely valuable for a well-planned future. It can make a massive difference in the outcomes of construction projects that have access to the "future economic benefits" approach to asset valuation as a correct asset management accounting to prevent over and underestimation of investments and repair debt. The Financial Evaluation and Risk Management of Infrastructure Projects is a comprehensive guide for professionals and students in the fields of construction and investment, as well as financial and investment institutions. It emphasizes the importance the life cycle cost of infrastructure projects and cost-benefit analysis in optimizing investments, as well as highlighting the need for cost-effective and sustainable infrastructure projects that incorporate "value for money" construction solutions while considering all risks involved. This book is ideal for professionals in construction, investment institutions, and financial and investment institutions, as well as for students in construction and investments. With the recent financial crisis in Europe and the growing focus on sustainability in construction, this guide offers practical insights and guidance for financial evaluation and risk management of infrastructure projects.

Key coverage/key issues of this book are: uncertainty and its mitigation, upside risk, the disadvantages of using optimum bias alone, evidence that has recently emerged about the risks in transport infrastructure projects, and risk efficiency.

Many infrastructure privatizations still leave governments—and thus taxpayers—exposed to significant financial risks. This book examines these risks and considers how governments should respond to investors' requests for guarantees and other forms of government support. The report examines how governments can decide which risks to bear and which to avoid, how they can reduce the risks that private investors face without giving guarantees, and how they can measure, budget, and account for the risks they do take on.

Project finance has spread worldwide and includes numerousindustrial projects from power stations and waste-disposal plantsto telecommunication facilities, bridges, tunnels, railwaynetworks, and now also the building of hospitals, educationfacilities, government accommodation and tourist facilities. Despite financial assessment of PF projects being fundamental tothe lender’s decision, there is little understanding of howthe use of finance is perceived by individual stakeholders; why andhow a financial assessment is performed; who should be involved;where and when it should be performed; what data should be used;and how financial assessments should be presented. Current uncertainty in financial markets makes many sponsors ofconstruction project financings carefully consider bank liquidity,the higher cost of finance, and general uncertainty for demand.This has resulted in the postponement of a number of projects incertain industry sectors. Governments have seen tax receiptsdrastically reduced which has affected their ability to financeinfrastructure projects, often irrespective of the perceiveddemand. Equity providers still seek to invest, however there areless opportunities due to market dislocation. Due to the demand forglobal infrastructure it is believed that project financings willreturn to their pre-crunch levels, or more so, howeverlenders’ liquidity costs will be passed on to the borrowers.Lenders will also be under stricter regulation both internally andexternally. The steps outlined in the guide are designed to provide a basicunderstanding for all those involved or interested in bothstructuring and assessing project financings. Secondary contractsinvolving constructors, operators, finance providers, suppliers andofftakers can be developed and assessed to determine theircommercial viability over a projects life cycle. Special Features a structured guide to assessing the commercial viabilityof construction projects explains economic metrics to use in the decision makingprocess detailed case study shows how stakeholders apply the concept ofproject finance

Clear, comprehensive guidance toward the global infrastructure investment market Infrastructure As An Asset Class is the leading infrastructure investment guide, with comprehensive coverage and in-depth expert insight. This new second edition has been fully updated to reflect the current state of the global infrastructure market, its sector and capital requirements, and provides a valuable overview of the knowledge base required to enter the market securely. Step-by-step guidance walks you through individual infrastructure assets, emphasizing project financing structures, risk analysis, instruments to help you understand the mechanics of this complex, but potentially rewarding, market. New chapters explore energy, renewable energy, transmission and sustainability, providing a close analysis of these increasingly lucrative areas. The risk profile of an asset varies depending on stage, sector and country, but the individual structure is most important in determining the risk/return profile. This book provides clear, detailed explanations and invaluable insight from a leading practitioner to give you a solid understanding of the global infrastructure market. Get up to date on the current global infrastructure market Investigate individual infrastructure assets step-by-step Examine illustrative real-world case studies Understand the factors that determine risk/return profiles Infrastructure continues to be an area of global investment growth, both in the developed world and in emerging markets. Conditions continually change, markets shift and new considerations arise; only the most current reference can supply the right information practitioners need to be successful. Infrastructure As An Asset Class provides clear reference based on the current global infrastructure markets, with in-depth analysis and expert guidance toward effective infrastructure investment.

Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending. Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure service delivery often ends up costing significantly more than expected, eroding limited fiscal space for productive spending. This book makes a unique contribution by quantifying the magnitude and prevalence of fiscal risks from electricity and transport infrastructure and identifying their root causes across a range of low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on important new sources of evidence and compiling many others, the analysis sheds light on how much is at stake in the good governance of infrastructure sectors. It allows policy makers to weigh the magnitudes of different types of risks and examine how they vary across contexts. Off the Books shows how a deeper understanding of the fiscal risks of infrastructure can help policy makers target reforms to areas where they can be expected to have the greatest impact. It lays out a reform agenda for mitigating the fiscal risks associated with infrastructure based on building government capacity; adopting integrated public investment management and integrated fiscal risk management; improving fiscal and corporate governance of SOEs; and ensuring robust PPP preparation, procurement, and contract management. The book will be of enormous value to policy makers, practitioners, and academics who have an interest in infrastructure and fiscal policy.

There is a growing interest to find ways and methods to finance capital investments in infrastructure by deploying private capital. Entering private capital into transport infrastructure planning, construction, and maintenance markets requires that the investors. behaviour and motives are understood. Private sector financing of infrastructure and other larger-scale investments have increasingly taken the form of project finance. The project cash flows are divided by equity investors, debt investors, contractors and suppliers and the users that receive the service. This research investigates the characteristics of a feasible framework for private finance of road infrastructure projects using one case project as an aid, which is analysed in depth. The research makes an effort to find out whether private finance of road infrastructure projects is able to bring additional benefits for the state and the project investors and whether private finance is applicable from the viewpoint of the aforementioned. The concept of risk is presented in the framework of financial theory. The relevant project cash flows are identified, as their volatility builds the risks of the project. The project cash flows are studied in detail as to how they form the value of the project. One essential outcome is the project model. The empirical model is built in view of the decision making point on case project in 1996, when the bidding for the project was officially initiated. Recent observed, real data is used to validate the project model. The sub-models of the project model include the cash flow model and the risk structure model, the former based on financial theory and Capital Asset Pricing Model, the latter based on the cash flow model and literature on risk. Simulation is used as the primary method of analysis. The primary source of time series data for economic variables, traffic volumes and road operating and construction is the Finnish Road Administration's production statistics. The case project finance is evaluated from multiple angles - what type of projects and what type of investors seem to be appropriate for shadow toll finance. Also some policy recommendations are provided. The private investors can gain by financing infrastructure projects, but it comes with a price, which is always paid by the taxpayers or users. To justify private finance, the beneficial aspects of private capital deployment must be substantial. The projects must be the best projects from a socio-economic viewpoint and not the ones that do not survive the competition in the normal budgetary process. Different risk factors are behind the long-term value risk and short-term insolvency risk of the project company. Project-specific risk factors are at least as important as economy level factors.