Extreme Risk Management Revolutionary Approaches To Evaluating And Measuring Risk

A revolutionary new approach for detecting and managing inherent risk The unprecedented turmoil in the financial markets turned the field of quantitative finance on its head and generated severe criticism of the statistical models used to manage risk and predict “black swan” events. Something very important had been lost when statistical representations replaced expert knowledge and statistics substituted for causation. Extreme Risk Management brings causation into the equation. The use of causal models in risk management, securities valuation, and portfolio management provides a real and much-needed alternative to the stochastic models used so far. Providing an alternative tool for risk modeling and scenario-building in stress-testing, this game-changing book uses causal models that help you: Evaluate risk with extraordinary accuracy Predict devastating worst-case scenarios Enhance transparency Facilitate better decision making TABLE OF CONTENTS Plausibility vs. Probability: Alternative World Views The Evolution of Modern Analytics Risk Management Metrics and Models The Future as Forecast: Assumptions Implicit in Stochastic Risk Measurement Models An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence Solutions: Moving Toward a Connectivist Approach An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference Risk Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Portfolio Management Using Causal Models Risk Fusion and Super Models: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security

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"Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS

Risk management is one of the most critical areas in investment and finance-especially in today's volatile trading environment. With Risk Management: Framework, Methods, and Practice you'll learn about risk management across industries through firsthand, real life war stories rather than mathematical formulas. Concise and readable, it covers both the theoretical underpinnings of risk management, as well as practical techniques for coping with financial market volatility. Focardi and Jonas give you a broad conceptual view of risk management: how far we have progressed, and the problems that remain. Using vivid analogies, this book takes you through key risk measurement issues such as fat tails and extreme events, the pros and cons of VAR, and the different ways of modeling credit risk. This book is a rarity in that it does not presuppose any knowledge of sophisticated mathematical techniques, but rather interprets these in their intuitive sense.

This book provides the most comprehensive treatment of the theoretical concepts and modelling techniques of quantitative risk management. Whether you are a financial risk analyst, actuary, regulator or student of quantitative finance, Quantitative Risk Management gives you the practical tools you need to solve real-world problems. Describing the latest advances in the field, Quantitative Risk Management covers the methods for market, credit and operational risk modelling. It places standard industry approaches on a more formal footing and explores key concepts such as loss distributions, risk measures and risk aggregation and allocation principles. The book's methodology draws on diverse quantitative disciplines, from mathematical finance and statistics to econometrics and actuarial mathematics. A primary theme throughout is the need to satisfactorily address extreme outcomes and the dependence of key risk drivers. Proven in the classroom, the book also covers advanced topics like credit derivatives. Fully revised and expanded to reflect developments in the field since the financial crisis Features shorter chapters to facilitate teaching and learning Provides enhanced coverage of Solvency II and insurance risk management and extended treatment of credit risk, including counterparty credit risk and CDO pricing Includes a new chapter on market risk and new material on risk measures and risk aggregation

This book examines a key aspect of the post-financial crisis reform package in the EU and UK-the ratcheting up of internal control in banks and financial institutions. The legal framework for internal controls is an important part of prudential regulation, and internal control also constitutes a form of internal gate-keeping for financial firms so that compliance with laws and regulations can be secured. This book argues that the legal framework for internal control, which is a form of meta-regulation, is susceptible to weaknesses, and such weaknesses are critically examined by adopting an interdisciplinary approach. The book discusses whether post-crisis reforms adequately address the weaknesses in regulating internal control and proposes an alternative strategy to enhance the 'governance' effectiveness of internal control.

A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications. Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety, banking and finance, and many other public and private institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.

Risk in Extreme Environments presents a wide-ranging discussion of approaches for assessing and managing extreme risks. Extreme events are not only severe, but also outside the normal range of experience of the system in question, and can include environmental catastrophe; engineering failure; financial or business meltdown; and nuclear or other extreme terrorism. The book focuses on synthesizing research results in a way that provides insights useful to decision makers, and enables them to ask probing questions about the risks faced by their organizations, identify creative solutions, and minimize the neglect of extreme risks that can come from a focus on mundane or ordinary management challenges. The book details case studies on nuclear power, infectious diseases, and global catastrophic risks, in addition to sections on risk assessment, risk management, and risk perceptions. Since effective management benefits from an interdisciplinary perspective, the chapter authors include experts in economics, engineering, geography, law, political science, psychology, sociology, and science in addition to risk analysis. Risk in Extreme Environments is an accessible and valuable resource for risk managers and other decision makers responsible for large complex business and government decisions, while also providing enough detail and references to be informative for risk analysts interested in learning more about technical aspects of the various methods.

This book is about how extreme and systemic risk can be analyzed in an integrated way. Risk analysis is understood to include measurement, assessment as well as management aspects. Integration is understood as being able to perform risk analysis for extreme and systemic events simultaneously. The presented approach is based on Sklar's theorem, which states that a multivariate distribution can be separated into two parts – one describing the marginal distributions and the other describing the dependency between the distributions using a so-called copula. It is suggested to reinterpret Sklar's theorem from a system or network perspective, treating copulas as a network property and individual, including extreme, risk as elements within the network. In that way, extreme and systemic risk can be analyzed independently as well as jointly across several scales. The book is intended for a large audience, and all techniques presented are guided with examples and applications with a special focus on natural disaster events. Furthermore, an extensive literature and discussion of it are given in each chapter for the interested reader.

Fully revised and restructured, Measuring Market Risk, Second Edition includes a new chapter on options risk management, as well as substantial new information on parametric risk, non-parametric measurements and liquidity risks, more practical information to help with specific calculations, and new examples including Q&A’s and case studies.