Extreme Precipitation Events Spatio Temporal Connections Forecasting Generation Impact Analysis Vulnerability And Risk Assessment

Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region in the Northern Great Plains (PPR-NGP) of the United States frequently fluctuates from drought to deluge. The historical hydrologic record for this region reveals periods of intense, prolonged drought intermingled with rapid and destructive flooding. Drought or flooding is initiated and sustained by deficit or surplus precipitation, respectively. The weather events that accompany these disasters are characterized by large spatial and temporal variations from normal in the frequency and intensity. The unique hydrology and geology of the region makes the PPR-NGP highly sensitive to these weather perturbations. The future looks to bring more warming and thus more intense precipitation to the region. As the frequency of extreme precipitation events rises, the magnitude and occurrence of floods and droughts will be elevated. The objective of this research was to determine the factors controlling precipitation trends, drought, and flooding in the study area. Also, the weather conditions preceding the disastrous events were observed and characterized. The analysis was focused on the effects of varying precipitation intensity, frequency, and antecedent conditions as they pertain to PPR-NGP drought and Red River flooding. The results may be applied to better predict the future trends of flood and drought response to extreme precipitation. Data mining was performed on available weather station observations to extract significant information and use it to derive valuable insight into PPR-NGP drought and flooding behavior. Hydrometeorological indices calculated over various timescales were applied to assess the intensity and frequency of rainfall, the change in snow depths, and the deviation from normal precipitation. Flood discharge hydrographs were classified based on shape parameters and matched to precipitation characteristics. Spatiotemporal and statistical operations were employed to determine the controlling factors of precipitation trends, drought, summer floods, and spring floods in the PPR-NGP and Red River Basin. Current precipitation and stream flow trends indicate the potential for enhanced flood and drought activity. Precipitation intensity and frequency are ascending, but the intensity is increasing more than the frequency of monthly events. The result is that Red River discharge rates are rising six times faster than total precipitation over the basin. The rise in stream flow rates can be explained by elevated precipitation intensity and to some extent precipitation frequency during key flood months. However, the most critical flood month of April has a decreasing total precipitation trend and yet the highest rise in discharge rate. These trends come about because overall fall and winter precipitation rates are on the rise. The antecedent precipitation is stored on and in the frozen ground until released by the spring thaw, which usually takes place in April. Thus, the risk for larger April floods is affected not by a single month but by a half year's worth of increasing precipitation conditions. Large fluctuations in monthly drought conditions were determined to be equally controlled by both the frequency and intensity of precipitation events. Extreme drought took a minimum of two to three months both to develop and dissipate from a semi-arid state. Though, the biggest shifts in month-to-month conditions were observed when both precipitation intensity and frequency were well above or below normal over the same area. So the onset or end of an extreme drought took place more rapidly when the intensity and frequency changes were great and harmonized. Similarly, the spatial extent of the most intense (on average) drought cells was surprisingly little, because the overlap of large precipitation intensity and frequency shifts typically occurred over a small area. Also, the drought duration usually increased when severity reached a higher level, so that multiple months of moderate drought reduced the overall intensity for all but the most severe parts of the cells. The intensity of precipitation events was the main controlling factor in Red River summer flood occurrence and magnitude. Antecedent conditions were not essential to the development of summer floods. Conditions were often near normal prior to a flood because more of the normal rain fell in a fewer number of more intense events. Conversely, the magnitude and occurrence of spring floods was controlled by antecedent precipitation and fast snow melt rates. A significant snow pack was observed prior to both major and minor floods, while a non-flood year had little snow pack over the basin. Fall soil moisture, winter snowfall, and a fast rate of stored water release all had to be present at sufficient levels to trigger a large flood response.

Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change.

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Climate Change and Extreme Events uses a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the relationship between climate change-related weather extremes and their impact on human lives. Topics discussed are grouped into four major sections: weather parameters, hydrological responses, mitigation and adaptation, and governance and policies, with each addressed with regard to past, present and future perspectives. Sections give an overview of weather parameters and hydrological responses, presenting current knowledge and a future outlook on air and stream temperatures, precipitation, storms and hurricanes, flooding, and ecosystem responses to these extremes. Other sections cover extreme weather events and discuss the role of the state in policymaking. This book provides a valuable interdisciplinary resource to climate scientists and meteorologists, environmental researchers, and social scientists interested in extreme weather. Provides an integrated interdisciplinary approach to how climate change impacts the hydrological system Addresses significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of climate change and extreme events Discusses the societal impacts of climate change-related weather extremes, including multilevel governance and adaptation policy