Exchange Market Pressures And Speculative Capital Flows In Selected European Countries
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Author | : Ms.Inci Ötker |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 1994-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451921578 |
Download Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in an attempt to identify the roles of macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative market pressures in the recent crisis, as well as earlier devaluations in adjustable fixed exchange rate systems in the European currency markets. For a sample of five countries, including Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Sweden, our empirical analyses show that both economic fundamentals and speculative factors have a significant influence on the probability of devaluations. The recent experience in the European foreign exchange markets suggests that the latest realignments are mainly the result of foreign exchange market tensions amidst the growing conflict between the needs of the domestic economies and the policies needed to maintain fixed exchange rates. Our results confirm that regardless of the source of the deterioration in economic conditions, market participants perceived the existing parities of the currencies in these five countries as inconsistent with their underlying economic fundamentals, thus effectively bringing about either a realignment or a modification of the exchange arrangement.
Author | : 0nci Ötker |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in an attempt to identify the roles of macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative market pressures in the recent crisis, as well as earlier devaluations in adjustable fixed exchange rate systems in the European currency markets. For a sample of five countries, including Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Sweden, our empirical analyses show that both economic fundamentals and speculative factors have a significant influence on the probability of devaluations. The recent experience in the European foreign exchange markets suggests that the latest realignments are mainly the result of foreign exchange market tensions amidst the growing conflict between the needs of the domestic economies and the policies needed to maintain fixed exchange rates. Our results confirm that regardless of the source of the deterioration in economic conditions, market participants perceived the existing parities of the currencies in these five countries as inconsistent with their underlying economic fundamentals, thus effectively bringing about either a realignment or a modification of the exchange arrangement.
Author | : Inci Ötker |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 41 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : I. Otker |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 50 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Capital market |
ISBN | : |
Download Coping with Capital Inflows Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper reviews the experiences of a number of European countries in coping with capital inflows. It describes the nature of the inflows, their implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and the policy responses used to cope with them. The experiences suggest that as countries become more integrated with international financial markets, there is little room to regulate capital flows effectively. The most effective ways to deal with capital inflows would be to deepen the financial markets, strengthen financial system supervision and regulation, where needed, and improve the capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies. These actions will help increase the absorption capacity and resilience of the economies and financial systems to the risks associated with the inflows
Author | : Mahmood Pradhan |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 45 |
Release | : 2011-04-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1463935129 |
Download Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Author | : Heather D. Gibson |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 37 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Ms.Inci Ötker |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 1995-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451853548 |
Download Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Author | : Ms.Linda S. Goldberg |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 58 |
Release | : 2018-02-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484341805 |
Download International Capital Flow Pressures Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
Author | : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
ISBN | : 9789291319626 |
Download Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle