Establishing Monetary Stability In Emerging Market Economies

There has been fierce debate about the optimal sequencing of economic reforms in emerging market economies. Many economists argue that for market-oriented systems to operate effectively, a reasonable degree of monetary stability is necessary. Rampant inflation, a common challenge for emerging economies, greatly reduces the chances that market-oriented reforms will be successful. In this comprehensive volume, a group of policy-oriented economists from North America, Europe, and the former Soviet Union explore the causes of monetary instability in reforming economies and evaluate alternative institutional mechanisms designed to reduce inflationary pressures. Considering the latest theoretical and empirical research–as well as the experiences of former Communist countries, including Russia and the erstwhile Soviet republics–the contributors view inflation as a political issue and make a case for the creation of strong political institutions. They argue that although government actions that stimulate inflation tend to have low costs or even benefits in the sort run, they impose heavy costs on the economy in the longer term. Consequently, there is a strong need to develop institutional mechanisms to help ensure that decision makers place appropriate emphasis on the long-run consequences of policy actions.

Financial globalisation has made the formulation of monetary policy in emerging market economies increasingly complicated. This timely set of studies looks at the turmoil in global financial markets, which, coupled with volatile inflation, poses serious challenges for central banks in these countries. The book features a number of specially commissioned new papers from both front-line policymakers and researchers in developing and emerging market economies, which tackle the difficult issues currently being debated with increasing urgency by monetary policy theorists and policymakers around the world. They address questions such as: What monetary policy framework is most suitable for emerging market countries to confront the new challenges while they continue to open up to trade and financial flows? , What are the linkages between monetary stability and financial stability? and Is inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate regime preferable for developing and emerging markets? Providing unique insights on the interaction between the theory and practice of monetary policy in emerging markets, this book will be of great interest to academics and students of economics, economic policy and development economics. Policymakers will also find this to be a useful and thought-provoking read.

Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and finally developed economies' implementation of unconventional monetary policies. The implementation of quantitative easing, ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets explains how shocks stemming from the global financial crisis have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging Asia. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets brings together the most up-to-date knowledge impacts of recent macroeconomic shocks on Asia's real economy; the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in Asia; and key challenges for monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro prudential policies of developing Asian economies. It is authored by experts in the field of international macroeconomics from leading academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlement, and the Asian Development Bank Institute.

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

This paper presents an update of the Grilli-Masciandaro-Tabellini (GMT) index of central bank (CB) autonomy, based on CB legislation as of end-2003. The index is applied to a set of OECD and developing countries, and emerging market economies. For a smaller set of countries, the paper presents a reconstruction of the GMT index based on Cukierman (1992) and assesses changes in CB autonomy between 1992 and 2003. The results point to a significant increase in CB autonomy, in particular for developing countries. In most cases, this improvement has involved a three-stage process: an initial stage in which the political foundations for CB autonomy are laid; a second stage in which operational autonomy develops; and a final stage in which CBs gain further political autonomy in terms of policy formulation and the appointment of senior management.

" A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication The global financial crisis has led to a sweeping reevaluation of financial market regulation and macroeconomic policies. Emerging markets need to balance the goals of financial development and broader financial inclusion with the imperative of strengthening macroeconomic and financial stability. The third in a series on emerging markets, New Paradigms for Financial Regulation develops new analytical frameworks and provides policy prescriptions for how the frameworks should be adapted to a world of more free and more volatile capital. This volume provides an overview of the global regulatory landscape from the perspective of Asian emerging markets. The contributors discuss the many challenges ahead in developing sound and flexible financial regulatory systems for emerging market economies. The challenges are heightened by the rising integration of these economies into global trade and finance, the growing sophistication of their financial systems as globalization and emergence processes accelerate, and their potential vulnerability to instability arising from the financial markets in the advanced economies. The contributors provide guidance about pitfalls to be avoided, general principles that should guide the creation of sound regulatory systems, and valuable analytic perspectives about how to continue to broaden the financial sector and innovate while still maintaining financial and macroeconomic stability. "