Empirical Tests Of The Effects Of Debt Equity Choice On The Systematic Risk And Firm Value In Australia

We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.

In order to align executives' interests with shareholders' interests, board of directors has rewarded executives with more option-based payments in the past decades. However, as volatility of share return increases, CEOs are more risk averse because their human capital and wealth are undiversified. Consequently, CEOs may pass up risky but value-enhancing corporate policy decisions. High pay-equity risk sensitivity (vega) CEOs are hypothesised to have more incentive to adopt more risky corporate policy, given that the volatility of the underlying share increases option value in Black-Scholes option pricing model.This study investigates the effect of vega on firm's book leverage and vega determinants based on a panel data of 137 Australian firms from 2003 to 2012, a period in which the federal government implemented a series of executive pay reforms to tie the pay more closely to performance. The results show that vega has a significant and positive effect on firm's leverage. In addition, the results demonstrate that there is a negative and statistical significant association between vega and CEOs' risk-aversion such as the option moneyness and cash compensation. This study also provides evidence that firm size has a significantly positive effect on firms' debt financing. Furthermore, in-the-money options and executive cash compensation have significant and negative impact on vega.

Mathematical finance plays a vital role in many fields within finance and provides the theories and tools that have been widely used in all areas of finance. Knowledge of mathematics, probability, and statistics is essential to develop finance theories and test their validity through the analysis of empirical, real-world data. For example, mathematics, probability, and statistics could help to develop pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.

Meta-Regression Analysis in Economics and Business is the first text devoted to the meta-regression analysis (MRA) of economics and business research.

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Mathematical tools: matrix algebra; Statistical tools: inference and distribution theory; Least squares and the standerd linear model; Partial and miltiple correlation; The statistical analysis of sisturbances; Generalized least squares and linear constraints; The combination of several linear relations; Asymptotic distribution theory.