Effects Of Trade Liberalization On Agriculture In Vietnam

This book uses Alan Winters’ analytical framework to investigate the effects of trade liberalisation on economic growth and poverty in Vietnam. The country launched a programme of economic and trade reforms, known as Doi Moi, in the mid-1980s which placed the economy on a transitional path from central planning to a market economy. Since then Vietnam has attained a number of remarkable achievements in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction. Although some formidable problems (such as inequality and inflation) remain, it is apparent that trade liberalisation has been associated with a big reduction in poverty. The analysis in the book focuses on the microeconomic (household) level, and there is an emphasis on tracing the effects of trade liberalisation through the four separate channels identified by Winters. Such in-depth and micro-level analyses yield new insights that support important policy lessons and recommendations for Vietnam in particular and, more generally, for similar developing countries.

The unilateral and regional ASEAN and now APEC) trade and investment liberalizations pursued by Vietnam during recent years have begun transforming the economy. The next logical step is to join the World Trade Organization, an application for which was submitted in 1995. The WTO legal bindings will give traders and investors increased confidence in the reform programme. This book outlines what the WTO accession process involves, what policies Vietnam will have to change, and what the economic effects will be, particularly on rural development.

This paper analyzes the impact of trade reforms on household welfare. In particular, it studies the importance of each of the links that together constitute the impact using data from the Vietnamese experience in the 1990s. The implementation of trade reforms in the 1990s, most noteworthy of which was the liberalization of rice, resulted in substantial improvement in welfare as evidenced by the drastic decline in poverty. Using analytical and empirical methods, the author examines the role of each channel (direct versus indirect) in this improvement for different groups of households. Results indicate that the growth has been broad based and pro-poor. Poorer households experienced more growth for each and every group analyzed. And contrary to the standard literature, net buyer households had more growth compared with net sellers, emphasizing the importance of indirect links. Decomposition of the growth shows that for rural households, both the direct effect and the multiplier effect drive growth while the multiplier effect was key in urban areas. The importance of the secondary effects underscores the need for a broader model to estimate the impact of trade reforms fully.

"What is the effect of trade liberalization on households in developing countries? To what extent do the poor benefit when local markets are made more accommodative to international trade? The author empirically analyzes the distributional impact of trade policies on households in a low-income country with a large rural economy where labor markets are imperfect. The methodology in this paper, which can be applied to various types of labor market conditions, relates changes in prices attributed to trade reforms to changes in household welfare, income distribution, and poverty using theoretically consistent measures of producer and consumer welfare. The author investigates the effects on poverty and income distribution of national and international market integration in Vietnam's rice sector and fertilizer market between 1993 and 1998, a period of ongoing market reforms when the national poverty rate fell sharply from 59 percent to 37 percent. ... " -- Cover verso.

This volume analyzes poverty implications of agricultural liberalization commitments of the WTO. The chosen micro-macro approach examines the link between international trade liberalization policies and impacts at household level. The possible outcomes of the current Doha Round for the agricultural negotiations are simulated using a general equilibrium model. Two scenarios are analyzed relating to whether or not Vietnam, as an example of an accession candidate, becomes a member of the WTO. The resulting price changes are combined with household survey data to derive income and poverty effects. Results show that households in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam are negatively affected in their poverty position by agricultural trade liberalization in the WTO if Vietnam were not a member of the WTO, however, these households gain if Vietnam accedes to the WTO. The study concludes that although trade liberalization would lead to poverty reduction effects for households in these marginalized zones, this would need to be complemented by further measures within the framework of poverty reduction programs.

What is the effect of trade liberalization on households in developing countries? To what extent do the poor benefit when local markets are made more accommodative to international trade? The author empirically analyzes the distributional impact of trade policies on households in a low-income country with a large rural economy where labor markets are imperfect. The methodology in this paper, which can be applied to various types of labor market conditions, relates changes in prices attributed to trade reforms to changes in household welfare, income distribution, and poverty using theoretically consistent measures of producer and consumer welfare. The author investigates the effects on poverty and income distribution of national and international market integration in Vietnam's rice sector and fertilizer market between 1993 and 1998, a period of ongoing market reforms when the national poverty rate fell sharply from 59 percent to 37 percent. He finds that when the effects of opening the rice and fertilizer market are isolated, Vietnam's agricultural trade reforms did not contribute to a significant improvement in overall household welfare or decline in poverty over this period. Nonetheless, the liberalization exercise can explain about half of the reduction in poverty incidence among farm households. The results also show that liberalization did not exacerbate income inequality, but did generate gains for rural households across the distribution, particularly the poor, at the expense of urban households.

Rice plays a key role in Vietnamese agricultural production and food consumption, and in the world rice market, Vietnam is one of the largest consumers and exporters. This publication sets out an integrated assessment of the economic, social and environmental impacts of rice production in Vietnam within the framework of trade liberalisation, particularly the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). This is part of an UNEP research project which has also examined impacts on other rice producing countries including China, Colombia, Senegal and Indonesia.