Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility

Abstract: Starting in 1982, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend allows each full-time resident in Alaska, including infants born in the qualifying year, to receive a sizable dividend. This dividend, which represents a form of a Universal Basic Income on a small scale, could alter incentives surrounding fertility. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences models to account for confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity, we model the effect of income on fertility by exploiting this income shock around 1982 using Natality files from Vital Statistics and abortion data from the Centers for Disease Control, merged with data from the Census on various state characteristics. Primary results suggest that the dividend increased fertility and reduced the spacing between births, particularly for females in the 20-44 year age group. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing income should consider fertility consequences and their implications for economic growth

I analyze the interplay between culture and economic incentives in decision-making. To this end, I study birth timing decisions of second generation migrant women to France and the US. Only the probability to have three or more children increases with the home country fertility norm, whereas the timing of the first two births is either unaffected or negatively correlated. I propose a model that rationalizes these findings in which decisions are the result of a trade-off between an economic cost-benefit analysis and a cultural norm. The model predicts that decisions with a higher cost of deviation from the economic optimum should be less prone to cultural influence. This is consistent with substantial evidence showing that the timing of the first birth bears much larger costs for mothers in terms of labor market outcomes than that of subsequent births.

Fertility choices depend not only on the surrounding culture but also on economic incentives, which have important consequences for inequality, education and sustainability. This book outlines parallels between demographic development and economic outcomes, explaining how fertility, growth and inequality are related. It provides a set of general equilibrium models where households choose their number of children, analysed in four domains. First, inequality is particularly damaging for growth as human capital is kept low by the mass of grown-up children stemming from poor families. Second, the cost of education can be an important determining factor on fertility. Third, fertility is sometimes viewed as a strategic variable in the power struggle between different cultural, ethnic and religious groups. Finally, fertility might be affected by policies targeted at other objectives. Incorporating new findings with the discussion of education policy and sustainability this book is a significant addition to the literature on growth.

Abstract: Variation in tax policy presents an opportunity to estimate the responsiveness of fertility to prices. This paper exploits the introduction of a pro-natalist transfer policy in the Canadian province of Quebec that paid up to C$8,000 to families having a child. I implement a quasi-experimental strategy by forming treatment and control groups defined by time, jurisdiction, and family type. This permits a triple-difference estimator to be implemented -- both on the program's introduction and cancellation. Furthermore, the incentive was available broadly, rather than to a narrow subset of the population as studied in the literature on AFDC and fertility. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate heterogeneous responses. I find a strong effect of the policy on fertility, and some evidence of a heterogeneous response that may help reconcile these results with the AFDC literature.

This thesis studies how financial incentives affect women's fertility timing decisions. Each chapter investigates this question by looking at a policy that exogenously increased fertility related financial incentives. The timing impacts of these policies are estimated using a discrete-time proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity. In the first chapter, the impact of the 1999 UK Working Families Tax Credit (WFTC) on the timing of birth is studied. This paper employs the 1991-2003 waves of the British Household Panel Survey and identifies the policy impact of WFTC by observing the change in the timing of birth using a difference in differences estimator. The main finding of this paper suggests little evidence of changes in the timing of all birth parity apart from first birth. Such a finding is likely to be explained by the policy design of WFTC that increased not only the fertility but also the labour supply incentives simultaneously. Moreover, a further analysis highlights the importance of other policies, which also in uenced women's labour supply during the period of study. The second chapter, on the other hand, studies the impact of the 1977-2001 US infertility health insurance mandates, which regulated the insurance companies to cover for infertility treatment cost. Although the majority of the past literature has studied impacts on older women who are likely to seek treatment, this paper proposes that the mandates may have had a wider impact on the US population. Specifically, it may have given an option for younger women to delay birth since these policies reduced the opportunity cost of having a child in the future. The chapter employs the 1980-2001 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Results suggest a significant delay of 1-2 years in the time of first birth among highly educated white women.

"We analyze how much a core rational-choice model can explain the temporal and spatial variation in fertility and school enrollment in France during the 19th century. The originality of our approach is in our reliance on the structural estimation of a system of first-order conditions to identify the deep parameters. Another new dimension is our use of gendered education data, allowing us to have a richer theory having implications for the gender wage and education gaps. Results indicate that the parsimonious rational-choice model explains 38 percent of the variation of fertility over time and across counties, as well as 71 percent and 83 percent of school enrollment of boys and girls, respectively. The analysis of the residuals (unexplained by the economic model) indicates that additional insights might be gained by interacting incentives with cross-county differences in family structure and cultural barriers."--Abstract.

Contributors discuss the Alaska Permanent Fund (APF) and Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) as a model both for resource policy and for social policy. This book explores whether other states, nations, or regions would benefit from an Alaskan-style dividend. The book also looks at possible ways that the model might be altered and improved.