Econometric Models Of The Euro Area Central Banks

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole. The volume takes stock of the current macroeconometric modelling infrastructure available within the Eurosystem, highlighting not only the structures and main features of the models used but also their purposes and underlying model-building philosophies. A bird s eye view of the key details of the design, structure and characteristics of the models is provided, along with information on the responses of these models to a series of standard economic and policy shocks. This is the first time that a comprehensive description and systematic comparison of the main macroeconomic models has been published. This book will be of great interest to Central Bank and government economists, as well as academics, economists and students with an interest in central banking, econometric modelling, forecasting and macroeconomic policy.

The Euro area is an extremely unique and important currency area for two reasons. First, it is the single largest currency area to be created in an industrialized region. In a sense, the Euro area is important as a test case for those contemplating the establishment of new currency areas in East Asia, North America or other industrialized regions. Second, it was established by sovereign states working as peers, who, despite various challenges, peacefully and autonomously decided to create a single currency area. In other words, the Euro area is very different from other currency areas created by countries formerly in colonial relationships with each other. Therefore, for regions emerging from a developing status and forming a currency area, the Euro area could serve as a model case.Marking the 10th anniversary of the creation of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Euro, this invaluable book analyzes the monetary policy of the ECB — the guardian of the Euro — by using recently developed econometric methods. The analysis performed in this book marks a substantial contribution toward understanding the significance of the Euro area as well as the future of the Euro from an international perspective.

The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.

This 2003 book offers the most systematic analysis available of the impact of European Central Bank monetary policy on the national economies of the Eurozone. Analysing macro and micro-economic evidence, with chapters by central bank economists, including a discussion chapter by eminent macroeconomists, it is an essential contribution to research on the subject.

Philipp Maier offers an examination of the extent to which governments and various interest groups have exerted pressure on central banks. The book looks in particular at the Deutsche Bundesbank - which acted as the blueprint for the European Central Bank (ECB) - and utilizes an original set of indicators to measure external pressure and support from the government and other institutions.

The first twenty years of the European Central Bank offer a unique insight into how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. This volume examines the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex measures taken by the ECB to tackle some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe.

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.

This book examines the Eurozone crisis in light of theoretical and empirical evidence. The first half explores specific theoretical contributions within a framework of growth theory models to examine the two major pillars of the European construction, the European Central Bank and the Maastricht Treaty, and seeks to explain why they are theoretically wrong. The second half presents results of counterfactual simulations using the Oxford Econometric model and estimates what the Eurozone has lost in terms of economic and social cost from 2002 to 2014 as a consequence of the super-evaluation of the Euro and the Maastricht Treaty parameters being mistakenly fixed and pursued. Finally, the author supports the urgent need to refund the European Union, up-dating The Maastricht Treaty and the ECB statute to build three concentric circles: the USE (United States of Europe), the EU (European Union), the EAFTDA (Europe/Africa Free Trade and Development Area).

Comprehensive 200-page overview of the ECB from its inception in June 1998 until the present day.