Dynamics Of Indian Export Trade

This paper analyses the dynamics of comparative advantage in India’s agricultural exports over the period 2001 to 2019. In order to analyze the pattern of export specialization, we use the revealed comparative advantage index, and its variant, the revealed symmetric comparative advantage index. We use the Markov transition matrix to examine the product mobility of comparative advantage. Our results show that the extent of agricultural trade openness has remained constant over time and that there has been little change in the composition of agricultural exports. Between 2017 and 2019, two products—semi- or wholly milled rice, and frozen shrimps and prawns—accounted for one-third of all exports. Analysis of the mobility of comparative advantage reveals little mobility of products from the lowest to the highest decile. There is a 65.8 percent probability that a product will stay in the first decile even after nearly two decades. A high degree of persistence of export specialization implies a much greater probability of starting and ending up in the highest decile. Policy should aim at diversification of the agricultural export basket through a product-specific focus that is based on export demand and the exploration of new markets.

Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.

Over the last 60 years, India's foreign trade has undergone a complete change in terms of composition and direction. The exports cover a wide range of traditional and non-traditional items while imports consist mainly of capital goods, petroleum products, raw materials, and chemicals to meet the ever-increasing needs of a developing and diversifying economy. In recognition of the growing importance of the foreign trade in driving the economy, this book describes and examines changes in the pattern of India's foreign trade since Independence in 1947, with focus on post-1991 developments. The book addresses issues related to trade policy, export strategy, tariff policy, current account dynamics, exchange rate management, foreign exchange reserves, capital account liberalization, external debt and aid, foreign investments (both direct and portfolio), and the WTO.

India espoused an outward orientation in July 1991 and instigated a gradual process of liberalization both in domestic sector as well as in foreign trade sector. During the two decades of reforms regime the role of foreign trade grown in India and remarkable changes came in its trade scenario. A noteworthy change during the post reforms regime is that India penetrates in global markets more rapidly for services trade than for goods trade. Considering this, on the eve of completion of second decade of reform, this study attempts to understand the dynamics and structure of India's commercial service exports in order to trace the impact of trade policy reforms on their composition. This study is exploratory in nature and utilizes secondary sources of data to draw out the inferences. After a detailed exploration of data the study finds out steep rise in the share of commercial service exports in total trade of India and a structural shift in its structure during the post reforms regime. The study advocates more entry level and domestic level reforms along with diversification in commercial service exports to gain further momentum and supports trade openness to gain competitive advantage for commercial service trade in the global market.

After decades of strained political relations, the U.S. and Indian governments are currently pursuing a "strategic partnership" based on numerous overlapping interests, shared values, and improved economic and trade relations. India is in the midst of a rapid economic expansion, and many U.S. companies view India as a lucrative market and a candidate for foreign investment. For its part, the current Indian government sees itself continuing the economic reforms started in 1991, aimed at transforming a quasi-socialist economy into a more open, market-oriented economy. However, the U.S. government is concerned that India's economic reforms are progressing too slowly and unevenly. Bilateral merchandise trade has grown from $6 billion in 1990 to $33 billion in 2006. Although India was only the 21st largest export market for the United States in 2006, the United States has become India's leading trading partner, mostly due to the growth in India's exports to the United States. However, recent increases in trade with China have made it a close second to the United States. In 2006, the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with India totalled $13 billion. In 2006, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 9.2%, a growth rate second only to China among Asian nations. India's economic growth has also brought about the emergence of a sizeable "middle class" and the largest number of billionaires in Asia, but the country's mostly rural population remains comparatively poor and largely isolated from the benefits of growth. In addition, there is growing concern that the economy is "overheated", as evidenced by rising rates of inflation. Moreover, despite several years of strong growth, investment in infrastructure is lagging, creating a potential bottleneck for long-term economic expansion. Finally, attempts at additional economic reforms aimed at resolving these and other economic problems are constrained by India's political dynamics. Despite the significant liberalisation of India's trade and foreign investment policies, there remain a number of bilateral and multilateral trade issues between the United States and India. The United States seeks greater market access to India's agricultural market and key service sectors for its exports and for foreign direct investment. The United States is also concerned about "outsourcing", and would also like to see improvements in India's intellectual property rights protection. India, for its part, calls for the lowering of perceived U.S. barriers to agricultural and service imports, as well as an expansion of the H-1B visa program. Many of the more prominent Indo-U.S. trade issues may have indirect implications for Congress. The growth of India's services exports to the United States has contributed to congressional consideration of possible legislation to provide greater assistance to displaced U.S. workers. Also, India's growing demand for crude oil has raised the possibility of boosting bilateral energy co-operation. Finally, the passage of the Hyde Act in 2006 (PL 109-401) has led to the negotiations of a bilateral peaceful nuclear co-operation ("123") agreement, which cannot go into effect without congressional approval.

This book is designed to examine and analyse various issues and hypotheses as regards India s Commodity Export Trade with special reference to price and quality trends and structural behaviour over time, and also encompasses and exhaustive account of recent empirical works progressed so far in the field of India s foreign trade in general and export trade in particular. Contents: Introduction, India s Export Trade: A Brief Survey, Price and Quantity Indices, Price and Quality Trends, Structure of Indian Exports I, Structure of Indian Export II, Main Findings and Conclusions.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.