Does Inflation Slow Long Run Growth In India

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989–2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL) approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation—to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5 percent. This suggest the need for the Reserve Bank of India to balance the short-term growthinflation trade-off, in light of the long-term negative effects on growth of persistently-high inflation.

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989–2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL) approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation—to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5 percent. This suggest the need for the Reserve Bank of India to balance the short-term growthinflation trade-off, in light of the long-term negative effects on growth of persistently-high inflation.

India. Monograph on the short term inflation crisis, its causes and economic policy recommendations - includes supply and demand factors influencing inflation, such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, price controls, the black market, a shrinking tax base, insufficient agricultural production and industrial production, etc. Statistical tables.

This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that India’s near-term growth outlook has improved, and the balance of risks is now more favorable, helped by increased political certainty, several positive policy actions, improved business confidence, and reduced external vulnerabilities. Growth is projected at 5.6 percent for FY 2014/15, picking up to 6.3 percent in FY 2015/16, as a result of the revival in industrial and investment activity. However, weaknesses in India’s corporate and bank balance sheets will weigh on credit growth, and fiscal restraint and a tight monetary stance will act as headwinds in the near term, offsetting the positive growth impact of the improved commodity terms of trade.

Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.

This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

High and persistent inflation has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India in recent years, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. A number of factors underpin India’s high inflation. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation—the causes, consequences, and policies being implemented to manage it. Several chapters are devoted to analyzing and managing food inflation, given its significance in driving overall inflation dynamics in India.

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

This book provides the latest research findings on the ways to revive and sustain higher growth rates in India.