Disintegration And Trade

As the world marketplace becomes ever more globalized, much is at stake for the prosperity of hundreds of millions of people in Europe and Central Asia as the region's transition process continues through its second decade. Understanding the underlying dynamics shaping the contours and most salient impacts of international integration that have emerged and likely to emerge prospectively in the region is thus a crucial challenge for the medium term economic development agenda, not only for policymakers in the countries on themselves, but also for their trading partners, the international financial institutions, the donor community and the future of the world trading system as a whole. This book addresses this challenge.

Abstract: June 2000 - This study of trade flows among and between nine Russian regions and 14 republics of the former Soviet Union shows a bias toward domestic trade in the reform period that is primarily the result of tariffs. In addition, old linkages - such as infrastructure, business networks, and production and consumption chains - have limited the reorientation of trade. Djankov and Freund study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union. Estimating a gravity equation on trade among and between nine Russian regions and 14 former Soviet republics, they find that Russian regions traded 60 percent more with each other than with republics in the reform period (1994-96). By contrast, the Russian regions did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987-90). The results suggest that the bias toward domestic trade in the reform period is primarily the result of tariffs. In addition, past linkages - such as infrastructure, business networks, and production and consumption chains - have limited the reorientation of trade. This paper-a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department-is part of a larger effort in the department to promote economic liberalization.

Recent studies have found that political disintegration is a cause of severe and rapid trade disintegration in former Eastern European countries. This finding somewhat conflicts with another strand of the literature highlighting the fact that trade patterns change relatively slowly. This article aims at reconciling the apparent inconsistency between these two results. Using a theoretically grounded gravity equation, we evaluate the intensity of trade between successor states of three former countries (Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia) in the period 1993-2001. We find no clear evidence that political disintegration leads to systematic and severe trade disintegration. This result is consistent with the patterns displayed by using simple descriptive statistics, is robust to sensitivity checks, and supports the idea of hysteresis in trade.

This study of trade flows among and between nine Russian regions and 14 republics of the former Soviet Union shows a bias toward domestic trade in the reform period that is primarily the result of tariffs. In addition, old linkages - such as infrastructure, business networks, and production and consumption chains - have limited the reorientation of trade.Djankov and Freund study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union. Estimating a gravity equation on trade among and between nine Russian regions and 14 former Soviet republics, they find that Russian regions traded 60 percent more with each other than with republics in the reform period (1994-96).By contrast, the Russian regions did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987-90). The results suggest that the bias toward domestic trade in the reform period is primarily the result of tariffs. In addition, past linkages - such as infrastructure, business networks, and production and consumption chains - have limited the reorientation of trade.This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to promote economic liberalization.