Determinants Of Resilience For Food And Nutrition Security In South Sudan

The paper analyzes the determinants of long-term individual and community resilience for food and nutrition security in South Sudan using data from multiple sources including key informant interviews, household and community surveys, and georeferenced secondary data on climate, agricultural production, irrigation, and market access. Major agricultural development constraints as well as incidence of and responses to shocks and conflict are described. Climate-crop modeling and simulation methods are used to evaluate the constraints and to identify crop investment options. Then, a spatial typology of food and nutrition security is used to evaluate the constraints along the production-to-nutrition pathway to identify interventions that target different segments of the chain and options for improving agriculture and broader development outcomes. These are classified into production, access, and utilization efficiencies, and whether the underlying constraints are structural (i.e., level of efficiency remains the same over time) or stochastic (i.e., level of efficiency changes over time). The analysis is focused on about a dozen selected counties. The results show that development challenges are being compounded by climate change, with significant increases in the mean annual rainfall and daily maximum temperature for the warmest month. Between 1975 and 2016 for example, the mean annual rainfall in the selected counties increased by 40-111 mm/year, with a rise in the intensity of 0.2-1.3 mm per event. The daily maximum temperature for the warmest month increased by 2.0-3.2°C. If these trends (especially for temperature) continue to 2050, crop yields are projected to decline in the selected counties on average by 12-23% for sorghum, 9-18% for maize, 19-30% for groundnuts, and 16-24% for cassava. In general, there is an inverse-U-shaped the relationship between temperature and yields. While the peak of the inverse U varies by crop, time of the growing season, and other factors, crops in South Sudan are typically on the downward sloping side of the inverse U implying that increases in temperature will decrease yields (and at an increasing rate). Results of a spatial typology show that a majority (78%) of the selected counties are classified as having medium production efficiency and 22% as low production efficiency, none with high production efficiency. With respect to access to nutritious food, 55%, 29%, and 17% of the counties are classified as low, medium, and high access efficiency, respectively. And regarding the conversion of food access into nutritional status, 37%, 26%, and 37% are classified as low, medium, and high utilization efficiency, respectively. Whereas production efficiency mostly remains constant over time, (with only 24% of the counties recording substantial changes in efficiency level), access and utilization efficiency appear more volatile (with substantial changes observed in 52% of the counties). These results suggest that the access segment of the production-to-nutrition value chain is the most constraining, followed by the utilization segment. The differences in the results across counties reflect differences in development constraints across the country, which are also described. Implications of the results for building long-term individual and community resilience are discussed, in addition to areas for further research. Given the complex nature of crises facing South Sudan, our findings call for a comprehensive policy approach to address not only the urgent humanitarian crisis but also to help restore agricultural production systems as well as support communities to cope, recover, and build their vii resilience to shocks and crises. This is in line with the Partnership for Recovery and Resilience (PfRR) integrated programme framework for resilience which comprises four pillars: i) re-establish access to basic services, ii) rebuild trust in people and institutions, iii) restore productive capacities, and iv) nurture effective partnerships.

This report acts as a baseline for the Food and Nutrition Security Resilience Programme (FNS-REPRO) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a four-year programme of USD 28 million funded by the Government of the Netherlands. This programme contributes directly to the operationalization of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2417 by addressing the “cause-effect” relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Somaliland, the Sudan (Darfur) and South Sudan. The programme, which became operational in October 2019, is designed to foster peace and food security at scale through a multi-year livelihood- and resilience-based approach. The FNS-REPRO component in South Sudan focuses on developing the seed sector value chain: first and foremost with the objective to close the cereal production gap, while eventually providing more diversified products for local, national and export markets. The purpose of the study is to collect baseline values for identified project indicators, which will be tracked over time and used to establish the impact of the project. In addition, it identifies and documents lessons learned that will facilitate the continuous realignment of the current project’s theory of change and assist in defining and designing similar future food security projects in South Sudan as well as in other parts of the world with similar contexts. The baseline study was structured around the project indicators that can be measured at household level as well as indicators that will be used to estimate household resilience capacity. Estimation of the household resilience capacity is done using the FAO RIMA-II tool. Overall, the study employed a panel design with both intervention and comparison households. The current baseline survey focused on Yambio and Torit counties, the first areas of the project roll-out. The data collection covered about 600 households from the two counties (407 treatment and 192 control) in October 2020.

This report provides an overview of the impact evaluation findings of the FNS-REPRO project in South Sudan. [Author] The report draws on data collected from a panel and two rounds of surveys (baseline in 2020 and endline in 2023), collected from both intervention and non-intervention areas in the programme's target areas. [Author] This method of panel data collection provides the strongest evidence for attribution of a causal relationship between the implemented interventions and the effect on beneficiaries. [Author] Estimation of the household resilience capacity is done using the FAO RIMA-II tool. [Author] Among others, the analysis found that rescaled Resilience Capacity Index among the beneficiary households increased from 50 in baseline to 55 in endline. [Author] The overall RCI reported a significant positive impact, with a change of 3. [Author]95 points. [Author] The adaptive capacity and social safety net pillars reported the highest significant and positive impact, with a change of 4. [Author]7 and 4. [Author]9 points respectively. [Author] In addition, the project had a significant positive impact (11 percent) on the percentage of households reported to have used quality seeds and planting materials during the cropping season preceding the survey. [Author] Lastly, the project had a positive impact on overall income, income from crop production and income from livestock production. [Author] There was an increase of SSP (South Sudanese pound) 7 898 and SSP 3 030 in overall income and income from crop production respectively. [Author]

This report acts as a baseline for the Food and Nutrition Security Resilience Programme (FNS-REPRO) of FAO, which is a four-year programme of USD 28 million funded by the Government of the Netherlands, that contributes directly to the operationalization of the United Nations Security Council 2417 by addressing the “cause-effect” relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Somaliland, Sudan (Darfur) and South Sudan. The programme, which became operational in October 2019, is designed to foster peace and food security at scale through a multi-year livelihood- and resilience-based approach. The FNS-REPRO component in Sudan focuses on supporting the production and value chain of gum Arabic. In Sudan, the programme is implemented in the North and East Darfur states. The purpose of the study is to collect baseline values for identified project indicators, which will be tracked over time and used to establish the impact of the project. In addition, it identifies and documents lessons learned that will facilitate the continuous realignment of the current project’s theory of change and assist in defining and designing similar future food security projects in Sudan as well as in other parts of the world with similar contexts. This baseline provides characteristics of the gum Arabic production and gum Arabic-producing households in the project area. Among others, it was estimated that 23 percent of the households in the study area were involved in gum Arabic production, of which 90 percent were male-headed households. Strategies to facilitate the participation of female-headed households in this value chain are critical. Households involved in gum Arabic production had limited access to information on gum Arabic production and prices. Furthermore, the households in the area received little to no training on aspects of gum Arabic production. This calls for an evaluation and improvement of agricultural extension services for the gum Arabic producers, which will assist in streamlining good agricultural practices among gum Arabic farmers.

The Food and Nutrition Security Resilience Programme (FNS-REPRO) is the first programme of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Eastern Africa specifically designed to foster peace and food security at scale. FNS-REPRO employs a livelihood and resilience-based approach in some of the least stable regions, where interventions are normally exclusively of a humanitarian nature. Its design allows FAO and partners to set good examples of how to build food system resilience in protracted crises and strengthen cooperation across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus towards this end. This report provides the results of analyses conducted during FNS-REPRO’s inception phase in the Sudan, with the aim to inform its area-based interventions, thereby creating a common understanding of the context, and both the challenges and opportunities therein. The context analysis informs and co-creates design, approaches and operational responses, thereby also strengthening the FNS-REPRO learning agenda and evidence-based programming – focused on seed sector development. The publication provides a baseline for the four-year programme in the Sudan, together with the Resilience Baseline (RIMA) report.

Economic shocks including food price shocks, environmental shocks, social shocks, political shocks, health shocks, and many other types of shocks hit poor people and communities around the world, compromising their efforts to improve their well-being. As shocks evolve and become more frequent or intense, they further threaten people’s food and nutrition security and their livelihoods. How do we help people and communities to become more resilient, to not only bounce back from shocks but to also to get ahead of them and improve their well-being so that they are less vulnerable to the next shock? How do we get better at coping with—and even thriving—in the presence of shocks?

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.

Armed conflict combined with prolonged drought has put about 20 million people at risk of starvation and death in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, and northern Nigeria. The international development and aid communities are caught between the enormity of the humanitarian crisis, which demands an estimated US$4.4 billion to address, and the lack of resources forthcoming from donors. Food crises, famine-like conditions, and famines recur with regularity in many developing countries (see Box 1 for definitions of terms). Although the current famines can be largely attributed to conflicts, chronic food insecurity also threatens several other African countries. For example, 6.7 million people were affected by Malawi’s largest food crisis in decades in 2016–2017, and the country remains vulnerable to weather extremes that could create food emergencies (World Bank 2017). In Kenya, food security has deteriorated since the end of 2016 and half of its 47 counties face food shortages (Chatterjee and Mengistu 2017). How do countries prepare to prevent shocks—natural and man-made—from generating food crises? What does it take to break the cycle of chronic food insecurity and build resilient food systems? How have some countries managed to prevent drought from leading to famine? In this brief, we document lessons for building resilient food systems to prevent future famines.

This report acts as a baseline for the Food and Nutrition Security Resilience Programme (FNS-REPRO) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a four-year programme of USD 28 million funded by the Government of the Netherlands. This programme contributes directly to the operationalization of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2417 by addressing the “cause-effect” relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Somaliland, the Sudan (Darfur) and South Sudan. The programme, which became operational in October 2019, is designed to foster peace and food security at scale through a multi-year livelihood- and resilience-based approach. The FNS-REPRO component in Somaliland focuses on developing the feed and fodder value chain, through a food systems approach. The purpose of the study is to collect baseline values for identified project indicators, which will be tracked over time and used to establish the impact of the project. In addition, it identifies and documents lessons learned that will facilitate the continuous realignment of the current project’s theory of change and assist in defining and designing similar future food security projects in Somaliland as well as in other parts of the world with similar contexts. The baseline study was structured around the project indicators that can be measured at household level as well as indicators that will be used to estimate household resilience capacity. Estimation of the household resilience capacity is done using the FAO RIMA-II tool. Overall, the study employed a panel design with both intervention and comparison households. The current baseline survey focused on Sool and Sanaag regions. Data was collected from a total of 1 026 households, 816 treatment households and 210 control households. The survey was conducted in two phases – in the first phase data were collected from 655 households in February 2020, while in the second phase an additional 371 households were surveyed in October 2020.