Decision Making And Forecasting

This book discusses how to design the most important features of realistic decision problems into analytical models that reveal their structure and give insight. Emphasis is on model formulation using graphical techniques with influence diagrams and decision trees. Decision Making and Forecasting shows how forecasting must be integrated with decision making in a coherent manner and makes frequent use of the economic value of forecasts.

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Many companies fail to succeed due to poor planning, which is one reason why accountants are in big demand. Skilled at forecasting, accountants can plan a company's future by determining the maximum sustainable growth and predict its external fund requirements. This book provides you with the basic tools necessary to project the balance sheet and statements of income and cash flow, enabling you to add a unique value to your client(s) work. This book will prepare you to do the following: Recall the basics of planning and forecasting financial statements Recall considerations related to a basic forecasting model Identify the evidence of growth mismanagement and develop the skills to determine maximum sustainable growth Apply statistical procedures to forecasting Analyze projected or forecasted financial statements

This book is written for all technologists and engineers. To those unfamiliar with forecasting it may appear a somewhat esoteric activity with little relevance to the everyday technical concerns of the reader. This is not so. The aim of this book is to show how forecasting can improve the quality of technical decision making. Furthermore, this can be accomplished without the use of highly sophisticated techniques which can only be applied by specialists. The approaches described in this book can be easily understood and used by all its readers.

The focus of this book is in incorporating the latest findings from both theory and practical research. The book not only presents general principles and fundamentals that underlie forecasting practice, but also introduces both standard and advanced approaches of forecasting, with main emphasis on data mining and predictive analytics. The purpose of the book is to help decision makers and forecasters carry out their job and to enable students to prepare for a managerial and analytical career.

This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.