Decade To Century Scale Climate Variability And Change

Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.

This volume reflects the current state of scientific knowledge about natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. It covers a wide range of relevant subjects, including the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean environments as well as the methods used to describe and analyze them, such as proxy data and numerical models. They clearly demonstrate the range, persistence, and magnitude of climate variability as represented by many different indicators. Not only do natural climate variations have important socioeconomic effects, but they must be better understood before possible anthropogenic effects (from greenhouse gas emissions, for instance) can be evaluated. A topical essay introduces each of the disciplines represented, providing the nonscientist with a perspective on the field and linking the papers to the larger issues in climate research. In its conclusions section, the book evaluates progress in the different areas and makes recommendations for the direction and conduct of future climate research. This book, while consisting of technical papers, is also accessible to the interested layperson.

The proposed book is not only a tribute to the work of Brückner (and indeed also a personal tribute, since Brückner wrote his book at the Institute of Geography of the University of Bern), but references to Brückner’s book are also a conceptual tool in the proposed book, though used sparingly and thoughtfully. Apart from providing historical context, references may facilitate introducing some complex topics, for instance by first presenting Brückner’s view and then complementing the picture with today’s understanding. References can be used for contrast: Comparing Brückner’s methods and data with today’s research concepts makes the progress in the field easily understandable. The enormous growth of information since Brükner’s time allows a much more detailed perspective on some scientific problems. Or references can be used to highlight similarity. Some aspects have not changed over time. Finally, the book complements Brückner’s studies by adding the arguably most interesting and certainly most relevant period, the past 120 years.

This book describes thoroughly the North American Climate of the past 65 million years, with special emphasis on the last 21,000 years, as revealed by paleoclimatic observations and climate models. It analyzes weather observations over the past century and satellite measurements of the last few decades to develop a picture of more recent climatic trends. It explains how global climate models are used to simulate and project climate, and presents the application of these models to reproduce recent climate variations and predict future North American climate. It answers the critical question of whether observed climate change is due to natural variations or human activity.

Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors. Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy. In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.

Climate change is emerging as one of the most important issues of our time, with the potential to cause profound cascading effects on ecosystems and society. However, these effects are poorly understood and our projections for climate change trends and effects have thus far proven to be inaccurate. In this collection of 24 chapters, we present a cross-section of some of the most challenging issues related to oceans, lakes, forests, and agricultural systems under a changing climate. The authors present evidence for changes and variability in climatic and atmospheric conditions, investigate some the impacts that climate change is having on the Earth's ecological and social systems, and provide novel ideas, advances and applications for mitigation and adaptation of our socio-ecological systems to climate change. Difficult questions are asked. What have been some of the impacts of climate change on our natural and managed ecosystems? How do we manage for resilient socio-ecological systems? How do we predict the future? What are relevant climatic change and management scenarios? How can we shape management regimes to increase our adaptive capacity to climate change? These themes are visited across broad spatial and temporal scales, touch on important and relevant ecological patterns and processes, and represent broad geographic regions, from the tropics, to temperate and boreal regions, to the Arctic.

This book is designed for first- and second-year university students (and their instructors) in earth science, environmental science, and physical geography degree programmes worldwide. The summaries at the end of each section constitute essential reading for policy makers and planners. It provides a simple but masterly account, with a minimum of equations, of how the Earth’s climate system works, of the physical processes that have given rise to the long sequence of glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary, and that will continue to cause the climate to evolve. Its straightforward and elegant description, with an abundance of well chosen illustrations, focuses on different time scales, and includes the most recent research in climate science by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It shows how it is human behaviour that will determine whether or not the present century is a turning point to a new climate, unprecedented on Earth in the last several million years.