Cycles Value Employment

An unconventional evaluation of the causes which, in the last ten years, have dramatically pushed down the rates of economic growth. The distinguished author, a member of the Club of Rome, argues that it is not simply a question of a new long term economic cycle of the types described by Schumpeter and Kondratieff, but is rather the effect of a fundamental change in the traditional, industrial modes of production. A clear evaluation of such change leads to the necessity of reformulating the notion of economic value, in order to find new strategies for developing a nation's wealth.

An unconventional evaluation of the causes which, in the last ten years, have dramatically pushed down the rates of economic growth. The distinguished author, a member of the Club of Rome, argues that it is not simply a question of a new long term economic cycle of the types described by Schumpeter and Kondratieff, but is rather the effect of a fundamental change in the traditional, industrial modes of production. A clear evaluation of such change leads to the necessity of reformulating the notion of economic value, in order to find new strategies for developing a nation's wealth

We build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative version of the model calibrated to the Mexican economy we find that reducing separation costs to a level consistent with developed economies would reduce output volatility by 15 percent. We also use the model to analyze the Mexican crisis episode of 2008 and conclude that an economy with lower separation costs would have experienced a smaller drop in output and in measured total factor productivity with no significant change in aggregate employment.

A research-backed clarion call to CEOs and managers, making the controversial case that good, well-paying jobs are not only good for workers and for society--they're good for business, too.