Cycles Value And Employment

An unconventional evaluation of the causes which, in the last ten years, have dramatically pushed down the rates of economic growth. The distinguished author, a member of the Club of Rome, argues that it is not simply a question of a new long term economic cycle of the types described by Schumpeter and Kondratieff, but is rather the effect of a fundamental change in the traditional, industrial modes of production. A clear evaluation of such change leads to the necessity of reformulating the notion of economic value, in order to find new strategies for developing a nation's wealth.

An unconventional evaluation of the causes which, in the last ten years, have dramatically pushed down the rates of economic growth. The distinguished author, a member of the Club of Rome, argues that it is not simply a question of a new long term economic cycle of the types described by Schumpeter and Kondratieff, but is rather the effect of a fundamental change in the traditional, industrial modes of production. A clear evaluation of such change leads to the necessity of reformulating the notion of economic value, in order to find new strategies for developing a nation's wealth

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Value Theory and Business Cycles was originally published in 1933 during the great depression. It is the purpose of the present study to show the vital relation between business cycle theory and value theory. In fact, the study is intended to contribute quite as definitely to the economics of value as of business cycles. Section I deals with embodied value theory and price movements. Section II deals with business cycles in relation to the marginal utility theory of value, as developed by the Austrian School. Section III deals directly with the problem of business equilibration, showing how certain forces contribute to instability, and suggesting ways and means of the achievement of greater business stability. The positive argument in this work may follow quite successfully by reading the first chapter in Section I and then proceeding directly to Sections II and III. -This book covers such topics as: -Why production does not finance consumption -Why supply does not beget demand -Why prices do not gravitate to the equilibrium point that clears the market -How a partial depression generates a general depression -Why the repeal of the antitrust laws and the promotion of unrestricted monopoly will not necessarily make business more stable-What the dangers of "greenbackism" really are-How the gold standard is unstable -Why liquidation fails to liquidate in time of depression.

Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.