Covariance Evaluation Methodology For Neutron Cross Sections

We present the NNDC-BNL methodology for estimating neutron cross section covariances in thermal, resolved resonance, unresolved resonance and fast neutron regions. The three key elements of the methodology are Atlas of Neutron Resonances, nuclear reaction code EMPIRE, and the Bayesian code implementing Kalman filter concept. The covariance data processing, visualization and distribution capabilities are integral components of the NNDC methodology. We illustrate its application on examples including relatively detailed evaluation of covariances for two individual nuclei and massive production of simple covariance estimates for 307 materials. Certain peculiarities regarding evaluation of covariances for resolved resonances and the consistency between resonance parameter uncertainties and thermal cross section uncertainties are also discussed.

We review neutron cross section covariances in both the resonance and fast neutron regions with the goal to identify existing issues in evaluation methods and their impact on covariances. We also outline ideas for suitable covariance quality assurance procedures. We show that the topic of covariance data remains controversial, the evaluation methodologies are not fully established and covariances produced by different approaches have unacceptable spread. The main controversy is in very low uncertainties generated by rigorous evaluation methods and much larger uncertainties based on simple estimates from experimental data. Since the evaluators tend to trust the former, while the users tend to trust the latter, this controversy has considerable practical implications. Dedicated effort is needed to arrive at covariance evaluation methods that would resolve this issue and produce results accepted internationally both by evaluators and users.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has recently completed the resonance parameter evaluation of four tungsten isotopes, i.e., 182,183,184,186W, in the neutron energy range of thermal up to several keV. This nuclear data work was performed with support from the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) in an effort to provide improved tungsten cross section and covariance data for criticality safety analyses. The evaluation methodology uses the Reich-Moore approximation of the R-matrix formalism of the code SAMMY to fit high-resolution measurements performed in 2010 and 2012 at the Geel linear accelerator facility (GELINA), as well as other experimental data sets on natural tungsten available in the EXFOR library. In the analyzed energy range, this work nearly doubles the resolved resonance region (RRR) present in the latest US nuclear data library ENDF/B-VII. 1. In view of the interest in tungsten for distinct types of nuclear applications and the relatively homogeneous distribution of the isotopic tungsten--namely, 182W(26.5%), 183W(14.31%), 184W(30.64%), and 186W(28.43%) - the completion of these four evaluations represents a significant contribution to the improvement of the ENDF library. This paper presents an overview of the evaluated resonance parameters and related covariances for total and capture cross sections on the four tungsten isotopes.

The Symposium on Nuclear Data Evaluation Methodology provided a forum for the discussion of developments made over the past 12 years in the evaluation methods used for generating data files for applied technology. With a program that was prepared by an international committee of experts in this field, this set of proceedings gives a comprehensive overview of the development and progress of this field for the last 12 years. It serves as an important source of reference and historical update for those seeking an in-depth understanding of this study.

We produced a large set of neutron cross section covariances in the energy range of 5 keV-20 MeV. The present set of data on 57 structural materials and 31 heavy nuclei follows our earlier work on 219 fission product materials and completes our extensive contribution to the low-fidelity covariance project (307 materials). This project aims to provide initial, low-fidelity yet consistent estimates of covariance data for nuclear criticality safety applications. The evaluation methodology combines the nuclear reaction model code EMPIRE which calculates sensitivity to nuclear reaction model parameters, and the Bayesian code KALMAN that propagates uncertainties of the model parameters to cross sections. Taking into account the large scale of the project, only marginal reference to experimental data was made. The covariances were derived from the perturbation of several key model parameters selected by the sensitivity analysis. These parameters refer to the optical model potential, the level densities and the strength of the pre-equilibrium emission. This work represents the first attempt ever to generate nuclear data covariances on such a large scale.

Here we present a methodology to propagate nuclear data covariance information in neutron source calculations from ([alpha], n) reactions. The approach is applied to estimate the uncertainty in the neutron generation rates for uranium oxide fuel types due to uncertainties on 1) 17,18O([alpha], n) reaction cross sections and 2) uranium and oxygen stopping power cross sections. The procedure to generate reaction cross section covariance information is based on the Bayesian fitting method implemented in the R-matrix SAMMY code. The evaluation methodology uses the Reich-Moore approximation to fit the 17,18O([alpha], n) reaction cross-sections in order to derive a set of resonance parameters and a related covariance matrix that is then used to calculate the energydependent cross section covariance matrix. The stopping power cross sections and related covariance information for uranium and oxygen were obtained by the fit of stopping power data in the -energy range of 1 keV up to 12 MeV. Cross section perturbation factors based on the covariance information relative to the evaluated 17,18O([alpha], n) reaction cross sections, as well as uranium and oxygen stopping power cross sections, were used to generate a varied set of nuclear data libraries used in SOURCES4C and ORIGEN for inventory and source term calculations. The set of randomly perturbed output ([alpha], n) source responses, provide the mean values and standard deviations of the calculated responses reflecting the uncertainties in nuclear data used in the calculations. Lastly, the results and related uncertainties are compared with experiment thick target ([alpha], n) yields for uranium oxide.

Recent evaluations of neutron cross section covariances in the resolved resonance region reveal the need for further research in this area. Major issues include declining uncertainties in multigroup representations and proper treatment of scattering radius uncertainty. To address these issues, the present work introduces a practical method based on kernel approximation using resonance parameter uncertainties from the Atlas of Neutron Resonances. Analytical expressions derived for average cross sections in broader energy bins along with their sensitivities provide transparent tool for determining cross section uncertainties. The role of resonance-resonance and bin-bin correlations is specifically studied. As an example we apply this approach to estimate (n,?) and (n, el) covariances for the structural material 55Mn.

In January 2007, the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) produced a set of preliminary neutron covariance data for the international project 'Nuclear Data Needs for Advanced Reactor Systems'. The project was sponsored by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, under the Subgroup 26 of the International Working Party on Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC). These preliminary covariances are described in two recent BNL reports. The NNDC used a simplified version of the method developed by BNL and LANL that combines the recent Atlas of Neutron Resonances, the nuclear reaction model code EMPIRE and the Bayesian code KALMAN with the experimental data used as guidance. There are numerous issues involved in these estimates of covariances and it was decided to perform an independent review and assessment of these results so that better covariances can be produced for the revised version in future. Reviewed and assessed are uncertainties for fission, capture, elastic scattering, inelastic scattering and (n,2n) cross sections as well as prompt nubars for 15 minor actinides ({sup 233,234,236}U, 237Np, {sup 238,240,241,242}Pu, {sup 241,242m,243}Am and {sup 242,243,244,245}Cm) and 4 major actinides (232Th, {sup 235,238}U and 239Pu). We examined available evaluations, performed comparison with experimental data, taken into account uncertainties in model parameterization and made use state-of-the-art nuclear reaction theory to produce the uncertainty assessment.