Choosing Exchange Regimes In The Middle East And North Africa

This paper reviews the exchange regimes of five emerging market countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia-and one oil-exporting country-Iran-to see whether they need to consider adopting more flexible arrangements as they further open their economies to trade and capital flows.

Monetary policy in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries remains an understudied area; this book fills an important gap by examining monetary policy frameworks and monetary policy strategies in the region. Building on the editors’ earlier book, Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Middle East and North Africa, which focused on central bank independence issues and on exchange rate regimes, this book emphasises monetary policy strategies. Part I contains an overview of the financial markets and institutions which condition the choice of monetary policy strategy in the countries of the region, followed by single-country studies on aspects of the monetary policy frameworks of Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Territory and Turkey. Part II includes analyses of the prospects for inflation targeting in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, of the monetary transmission mechanism in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, of the relative advantages of inflation targeting and exchange rate fixity with reference to Egypt, of the problem of fiscal dominance in Egypt, and of the inflationary implications of exchange rate fixity for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The contributors are experts from universities inside and outside the MENA region, from central banks in the region and from outside institutions such as the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

In this paper, we investigate how economic, political and institutional factors affect the choice of exchange rate regimes, using data on eight MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the 1984-2016 period. Specifically, we run random-effects ordered probit regressions of the likelihood of exchange rate regimes on potential determinants of exchange rate regimes. Three important findings emerge from the analysis. i) Political and institutional factors play an important role in determining the exchange rate regime in MENA countries: a democratic political regime and a low level of corruption increases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. While, strong governments, political stability such as less internal conflicts and more government stability, more law and order enforcement and left-wing Government decreases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. ii) Bureaucracy, independent central banks, elections, terms of trade as well as the monetary independence have no effect on the choice of exchange rate regimes. iii) Financial development is not a robust determinant of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Our results still hold when considering alternative specifications and have important implications for policy makers in MENA countries.

"While very diverse in many respects, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries nevertheless also share some common characteristics, including a number of important shared challenges for policymakers."The Middle East and North Africa region has great potential for economic growth and prosperity in the 21st century. Yet, this potential will not be realized unless governments and private sector leaders in the region forge partnerships for development. An indispensable resource for all those working within the international development community, especially within the Middle East and North Africa region, Trade Policy Developments in the Middle East and North Africa offers policy and institutional alternatives to help both parties achieve that goal.This volume describes and analyzes recent trade policy developments in the Middle East and North Africa. Contributors—almost all economists from the region—review recent trends in trade performance, assess current trade and investment regimes, and discuss some of the emerging microeconomic policy challenges that confront governments and firms seeking to export and trade. Topics addressed include the need and scope for using regional integration and economic free zones as a tool of development, mobilization of non-trade tax bases, efficient enforcement of product standards to ensure health and safety of citizens, and implementation of modern information technologies to facilitate customs clearance.This book is the second in a series from the Mediterranean Development Forum, a partnership of 10 Middle East and North Africa Region think tanks and the World Bank Institute. This volume will be of interest to development specialists, policymakers, and investors.

Currency convertibility is a far-reaching instrument to facilitate integration into the global economy. With it a country can gain the benefits of increased freedom in capital movements and of fostering trade and financial linkages worldwide. A seminar sponsored by the Arab Monetary Fund and the IMF, held in Marrakesh, Morocco, discussed the theoretical and empirical aspects of currency convertibility in the Arab countries. The volume, edited by Manuel Guitián and Saleh M. Nsouli, reproduces the papers presented at the seminar.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Middle East and North Africa Investment Policy Perspectives highlights the considerable progress in investment policies made by the region’s governments over the past decade. Yet, the reform momentum needs to be sustained and deepened for the benefits of investment to be shared with society at large and for growth to be sustainable, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting global economic upheaval.