Bayesian Statistics The Fun Way

Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

"An introduction to Bayesian statistics with simple and pop culture-based explanations. Topics covered include measuring your own uncertainty in a belief, applying Bayes' theorem, and calculating distributions"--

This is an entry-level book on Bayesian statistics written in a casual, and conversational tone. The authors walk a reader through many sample problems step-by-step to provide those with little background in math or statistics with the vocabulary, notation, and understanding of the calculations used in many Bayesian problems.

If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.

Emphasizing the use of WinBUGS and R to analyze real data, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians presents statistical tools to address scientific questions. It highlights foundational issues in statistics, the importance of making accurate predictions, and the need for scientists and statisticians to collaborate in analyzing data. The WinBUGS code provided offers a convenient platform to model and analyze a wide range of data. The first five chapters of the book contain core material that spans basic Bayesian ideas, calculations, and inference, including modeling one and two sample data from traditional sampling models. The text then covers Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. After discussing linear structures in regression, it presents binomial regression, normal regression, analysis of variance, and Poisson regression, before extending these methods to handle correlated data. The authors also examine survival analysis and binary diagnostic testing. A complementary chapter on diagnostic testing for continuous outcomes is available on the book’s website. The last chapter on nonparametric inference explores density estimation and flexible regression modeling of mean functions. The appropriate statistical analysis of data involves a collaborative effort between scientists and statisticians. Exemplifying this approach, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis focuses on the necessary tools and concepts for modeling and analyzing scientific data. Data sets and codes are provided on a supplemental website.

Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers.

In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.

"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems