Bayesian Methods For Astrophysical Data Analysis

Statistical literacy is critical for the modern researcher in Physics and Astronomy. This book empowers researchers in these disciplines by providing the tools they will need to analyze their own data. Chapters in this book provide a statistical base from which to approach new problems, including numerical advice and a profusion of examples. The examples are engaging analyses of real-world problems taken from modern astronomical research. The examples are intended to be starting points for readers as they learn to approach their own data and research questions. Acknowledging that scientific progress now hinges on the availability of data and the possibility to improve previous analyses, data and code are distributed throughout the book. The JAGS symbolic language used throughout the book makes it easy to perform Bayesian analysis and is particularly valuable as readers may use it in a myriad of scenarios through slight modifications. This book is comprehensive, well written, and will surely be regarded as a standard text in both astrostatistics and physical statistics. Joseph M. Hilbe, President, International Astrostatistics Association, Professor Emeritus, University of Hawaii, and Adjunct Professor of Statistics, Arizona State University

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Comprehensive introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmological studies, for graduate students and researchers in cosmology, astrophysics and applied statistics.

"Bayesian methods are increasingly being employed in many different areas of physical sciences research. In astrophysics, models are used to make predictions to compare to observations that are incomplete and uncertain, so the comparison must be pursued by following a probabilistic approach. With contributions from leading experts, this volume covers the foundations of Bayesian inference, a description of the applicable computational methods, and recent results from their application to areas such as exoplanet detection and characterisation, image reconstruction, and cosmology. With content that appeals both to young researchers seeking to learn about Bayesian methods and to astronomers wishing to incorporate these approaches into their research, it provides the next generation of researchers with tools of modern data analysis that are becoming standard in astrophysical research"--

​​​​​ ​This volume provides an overview of the field of Astrostatistics understood as the sub-discipline dedicated to the statistical analysis of astronomical data. It presents examples of the application of the various methodologies now available to current open issues in astronomical research. The technical aspects related to the scientific analysis of the upcoming petabyte-scale databases are emphasized given the importance that scalable Knowledge Discovery techniques will have for the full exploitation of these databases. Based on the 2011 Astrostatistics and Data Mining in Large Astronomical Databases conference and school, this volume gathers examples of the work by leading authors in the areas of Astrophysics and Statistics, including a significant contribution from the various teams that prepared for the processing and analysis of the Gaia data.

Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.

Digital sky surveys, high-precision astrometry from satellite data, deep-space data from orbiting telescopes, and the like have all increased the quantity and quality of astronomical data by orders of magnitude per year for several years. Making sense of this wealth of data requires sophisticated statistical techniques. Fortunately, statistical methodologies have similarly made great strides in recent years. Powerful synergies thus emerge when astronomers and statisticians join in examining astrostatistical problems and approaches. The book begins with an historical overview and tutorial articles on basic cosmology for statisticians and the principles of Bayesian analysis for astronomers. As in earlier volumes in this series, research contributions discussing topics in one field are joined with commentary from scholars in the other. Thus, for example, an overview of Bayesian methods for Poissonian data is joined by discussions of planning astronomical observations with optimal efficiency and nested models to deal with instrumental effects. The principal theme for the volume is the statistical methods needed to model fundamental characteristics of the early universe on its largest scales.

This book includes the lectures given during the third session of the School of Statistics for Astrophysics that took place at Autrans, near Grenoble, in France, in October 2017. The subject is Bayesian Methodology. The interest of this statistical approach in astrophysics probably comes from its necessity and its success in determining the cosmological parameters from observations, especially from the cosmic background luctuations. The cosmological community has thus been very active in this field for many years. But the Bayesian methodology, complementary to the more classical frequentist one, has many applications in physics in general due to its ability to incorporate a priori knowledge into inference, such as uncertainty brought by the observational processes. The Bayesian approach becomes more and more widespread in the astrophysical literature. This book contains statistics courses on basic to advanced methods with practical exercises using the R environment, by leading experts in their field. This covers the foundations of Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, model building, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Bayesian nonparametric inference and clustering.

Broadening its scope to nonstatisticians, Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition provides an accessible introduction to the foundations and applications of Bayesian analysis. Along with a complete reorganization of the material, this edition concentrates more on hierarchical Bayesian modeling as implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and related data analytic techniques. New to the Third Edition New data examples, corresponding R and WinBUGS code, and homework problems Explicit descriptions and illustrations of hierarchical modeling—now commonplace in Bayesian data analysis A new chapter on Bayesian design that emphasizes Bayesian clinical trials A completely revised and expanded section on ranking and histogram estimation A new case study on infectious disease modeling and the 1918 flu epidemic A solutions manual for qualifying instructors that contains solutions, computer code, and associated output for every homework problem—available both electronically and in print Ideal for Anyone Performing Statistical Analyses Focusing on applications from biostatistics, epidemiology, and medicine, this text builds on the popularity of its predecessors by making it suitable for even more practitioners and students.