Baseline And Target Values For Regional And Point Pv Power Forecasts

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

This book presents the proceedings of the 2nd Pacific Rim Statistical Conference for Production Engineering: Production Engineering, Big Data and Statistics, which took place at Seoul National University in Seoul, Korea in December, 2016. The papers included discuss a wide range of statistical challenges, methods and applications for big data in production engineering, and introduce recent advances in relevant statistical methods.

Big Data Application in Power Systems brings together experts from academia, industry and regulatory agencies who share their understanding and discuss the big data analytics applications for power systems diagnostics, operation and control. Recent developments in monitoring systems and sensor networks dramatically increase the variety, volume and velocity of measurement data in electricity transmission and distribution level. The book focuses on rapidly modernizing monitoring systems, measurement data availability, big data handling and machine learning approaches to process high dimensional, heterogeneous and spatiotemporal data. The book chapters discuss challenges, opportunities, success stories and pathways for utilizing big data value in smart grids. Provides expert analysis of the latest developments by global authorities Contains detailed references for further reading and extended research Provides additional cross-disciplinary lessons learned from broad disciplines such as statistics, computer science and bioinformatics Focuses on rapidly modernizing monitoring systems, measurement data availability, big data handling and machine learning approaches to process high dimensional, heterogeneous and spatiotemporal data

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

This study presents options to fully unlock the world’s vast solar PV potential over the period until 2050. It builds on IRENA’s global roadmap to scale up renewables and meet climate goals.

Handbook of Energy Economics and Policy: Fundamentals and Applications for Engineers and Energy Planners presents energy engineers and managers with analytical skills and concepts that enable them to apply simple economic logic to understand the interrelations between energy technologies, economics, regulation and governance of the industry. Sections cover the origins, types and measurement of energy sources, transportation networks, and regulatory and policy issues on electricity and gas at a global level, new economic and policy issues, including innovation processes in the energy industry and economic and policy implications. Final sections cover state-of-the-art methods for modeling and predicting the dynamics of energy systems. Its unique approach and learning path makes this book an ideal resource for energy engineering practitioners and researchers working to design, develop, plan or deploy energy systems. Energy planners and policymakers will also find this to be a solid foundation on which to base decisions. Presents key-concepts and their interrelation with energy technologies and systems in a clear way for ready application during planning and deployment of energy technologies and systems Includes global case studies covering a wide array of energy sources and regulatory models Explores methodologies for modeling and forecasting the impacts of energy technologies and systems, as well as their costs and possible business models

Power systems must be actively managed to maintain a steady balance between supply and demand. This is already a complex task as demand varies continually. But what happens when supply becomes more variable and less certain, as with some renewable sources of electricity like wind and solar PV that fluctuate with the weather? to what extent can the resources that help power systems cope with the challenge of variability in demand also be applied to variability of supply? How large are these resources? and what share of electricity supply from variable renewables can they make possible? There is no one-size-fits-all answer. the ways electricity is produced, transported and consumed around the world exhibit great diversity. Grids can cross borders, requiring co-ordinated international policy, or can be distinct within a single country or region. and whether found in dispatchable power plants, storage facilities, interconnections for trade or on the demand side, the flexible resource that ensures the provision of reliable power in the face of uncertainty likewise differs enormously. Written for decision makers, Harnessing Variable Renewables: a Guide to the Balancing Challenge sheds light on managing power systems with large shares of variable renewables. It presents a new, step-by-step approach developed by the IEA to assess the flexibility of power systems, which identifies the already present resources that could help meet the twin challenges of variability and uncertainty.

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.