Assessing Bank Competition Within The East African Community

This paper is an empirical analysis of competitiveness in the banking system of four out of the five East African Community (EAC) countries2. The results show that the degree of competition is low due to a combination of structural and socio-economic factors. By way of preview, the analysis ranks the countries in terms of banking sector competitiveness in the following order: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda.

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out.

This dissertation assesses the competitiveness of Tanzania's banking sector using both structural and non-structural (industrial organization) approaches, assesses the predictors of banks' lending behavior, and investigates the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission process. The first and the second essays utilize bank-level panel data of commercial banks whereas the third employs aggregate time series data. My work contributes to understanding the underlying factors and processes which explain the nature of competition in the banking sector and the conduct of monetary policy in Tanzania. In the first essay, I use the dynamic regression model to test the hypotheses that the market power of banks in Tanzania leads to higher bank profits, by including the lag of the dependent variable among regressors to test the tendency of profits to persist over time, using the market share of banks to test the relative-market-power (RMP) hypothesis, and using concentration ratios to test the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis. Using data drawn from twenty-six commercial banks during the 1998-2015 period, I establish from the results that the lag of the dependent variable, market share of banks, and industry concentration ratios (HHIs) have a positive and statistically significant effect on bank profit. These results support moderate persistence of bank profits over time, RMP and SCP hypotheses, as potential explanations of high bank profits. In the second essay, I also use the dynamic regression model to assess potential predictors of commercial banks' lending behavior and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission process. Using quarterly panel data for thirty-one commercial banks for the 1998-2015 period, I establish from the results that bank lending persists significantly over time, hence suggesting that some degree of relationship banking and lock-in-effect for lenders and borrowers exists. Although bank size and capital, and inflation rate are associated with higher bank lending, credit risk, private and foreign bank ownership, market power of banks, and the square of inflation rate, have a negative effect on lending. Results for the bank lending channel show that contractionary monetary policy (higher monetary policy indicators) is associated with higher bank lending, and this positive effect of contractionary monetary policy on bank lending is more pronounced in samples of all the banks and medium-sized banks that are more capitalized, in a sample of large banks with more liquidity and capital but with less assets, and in a sample of small banks with less size and capital. By drawing on a country-specific case of Tanzania, this essay is illuminating because results of studies of this nature differ across countries and regions, depending on the structure of the economy, financial sector development, institutional and regulatory environment. In Amidu (2014), determinants of bank lending are different across economic integrations (Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS], the East African Community [EAC] and the Southern Africa Development Community [SADC]. In the third essay, I use the dynamic regression model (autoregressive process of order one), which empirically applies the theoretical seminal work of Panzar and Rosse (1987) to estimate an index of banking sector contestability, the H statistic, which is the sum of factor price elasticities of the reduced form revenue equation. Using time series data for the 1998-2015 period, the estimated H statistic of 0.57, characterizes Tanzania's banking sector as monopolistic competitive, in which high industry concentration co-exists with considerable contestable pressure. Bank revenues persist moderately over time, whereby interest revenue generation is a key bank activity. Furthermore, the aftermath of the 2006 second-generation financial sector reforms is associated with improved banking industry competitiveness, based on the moving average estimates of the H statistics, and is associated with changes in the banks' production functions, whereby banks substitute less funds (deposits) and physical capital, with more labor. These results are consistent with the dramatic decline in the interest rate spread and an increase in the proportion of labor costs.

The study examines the determinants of banks expansion in the East African Community (EAC) using data for Kenyan banks. The study estimates both a probit model based on a binary choice of expanding to the region or not, and a pooled panel regression model based on a bank's actual flow of foreign direct investments in associates, subsidiaries and joint ventures in the region. The results show the importance of factors associated with the need to follow bank clients abroad, efficiency and size of the banks, and the potential market opportunities of the host countries. Larger, profitable and more efficient Kenyan banks have been at a competitive advantage to expand to the region. However, this does not imply that the smaller banks are not expanding to the region, rather, that the expansion of larger banks is more conspicuous. Consistent with other studies, Kenyan banks seem to prefer to expand to a country where inflation is relatively low and less likely to cause macroeconomic instability. The findings support the on-going deeper economic integration in terms of more trade and investment. This suggests that most Kenyan banks are expanding to the region in order to provide their home clients with the services on site and to take advantage of the large potential for business of the regional economies.

We analyze the structure, performance, and role of banking systems in the three member countries of the East African Community-Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda-against the backdrop of recent financial sector reforms. Focusing on the behavior of different types of banks, we find no support for the argument that the presence of large international banks would have an adverse effect on the effectiveness and efficiency of banking sectors in developing countries. International banks are generally more efficient and more active in lending than domestic banks. However, as suggested by the Kenyan experience, the presence of international banks may not lead to increased competition and provision of banking services if weak institutions are allowed to remain in the system.

Pan-African banks are expanding rapidly across the continent, creating cross-border networks, and having a systemic presence in the banking sectors of many Sub-Saharan African countries. These banking groups are fostering financial development and economic integration, stimulating competition and efficiency, introducing product innovation and modern management and information systems, and bringing higher skills and expertise to host countries. At the same time, the rise of pan-African banks presents new challenges for regulators and supervisors. As networks expand, new channels for transmission of macro-financial risks and spillovers across home and host countries may emerge. To ensure that the gains from cross border banking are sustained and avoid raising financial stability risks, enhanced cross-border cooperation on regulatory and supervisory oversight is needed, in particular to support effective supervision on a consolidated basis. This paper takes stock of the development of pan-African banking groups; identifies regulatory, supervisory and resolution gaps; and suggests how the IMF can help the authorities address the related challenges.

Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.

East African Community Law provides a comprehensive and open-access text book on EAC law. Written by leading experts, including the president of the EACJ, national judges, academics and practitioners, it provides the most complete overview to date of this increasingly important field. Uniquely, the book also provides a systematic comparison with EU law. EU companion chapters provide concise overviews of EU law and its development, offering valuable inspiration for the application and further development of EAC law. The book has been written for all practitioners, judges, civil servants, academics and students faced with questions of EAC law. It discusses institutional, substantive and jurisdictional issues, including the nature of EAC law, free movement and competition law as well as the reception of EAC law in Partner States.

Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 51⁄2 percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.