Annual Energy Outlook 1998

The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) is the first AEO with projections to 2020. Key issues for the forecast extension are trends in energy efficiency improvements, the effects of increasing production and productivity improvements on energy prices, and the reduction in nuclear generating capacity. Projections in AEO98 also reflect a greater shift to electricity market restructuring. Restructuring is addressed through several changes that are assumed to occur in the industry, including a shorter capital recovery period for capacity expansion decisions and a revised financial structure that features a higher cost of capital as the result of higher competitive risk. Both assumptions tend to favor less capital-intensive generation technologies, such as natural gas, over coal or baseload renewable technologies. The forecasts include specific restructuring plans in those regions that have announced plans. California, New York, and New England are assumed to begin competitive pricing in 1998. The provisions of the California legislation for stranded cost recovery and price caps are incorporated. In New York and New England, stranded cost recovery is assumed to be phased out by 2008.

Presents midterm forecasts of of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020. Includes: legislation and regulations (electricity deregulation, various standards, and new Acts), issues in focus (electricity pricing, stimulating renewables, carbon emissions), market trends (energy demand, electricity, oil and natural gas, coal, emissions), forecast comparisons, list of acronyms. Key issues for the forecast extension to 2020 are: trends in energy efficiency improvements, effects of increasing production and productivity improvements on energy prices, and reduction in nuclear generating capacity. More than 125 tables and figures.

Presents forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020. The report begins with an "Overview". The next section, "Legislation and Regulations," describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. "Issues in Focus" discusses current energy issues -- appliance standards, gasoline and diesel fuel standards, natural gas industry expansion, competitive electricity pricing, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. Extensive charts, tables, and graphs.