Analysis Of Disaster Risk Management In Colombia

The objective of this analysis is to assess the state of progress of risk management in Colombia and propose recommendations to help the Government set public policy in the short-and long-term. For this reason, the study sought to: (i) establish the risk and impact of disasters in recent decades, (ii) identify legal, institutional and conceptual themes in the country, (iii) review the state and evolution of investment in risk management, (iv) analyze the role of local authorities and industry in the risk management, and (v) identify gaps and challenges in the definition of the responsibilities of public and private sectors. This report, a product of joint work with multiple public and private agencies, is not limited in analyzing the causes of risk and measuring their growth. By contrast, it elaborates on the institutional developments in the risk management at different levels of government and how the topic is incorporated in the territory of public administration and industry. It further states the great opportunities for joint risk management instruments of disaster planning, investment, existing monitoring and control, and shows the need to define public and private responsibility as part of a reduction strategy of the state's fiscal vulnerability. In conclusion, the study shows that if the country does not want to see economic growth accompanied by more frequent and larger losses it will be essential to have a radical change in development policies and land management practices and industry. Therefore, the present document defines a set of recommendations to improve management of disaster risk at the level of state policy, showing that the priority to reduce the impact of disasters is based on the task of improving conditions of use and occupation of territory.

The need to improve disaster risk management in urban areas has been increasingly acknowledged as a development challenge, in which local institutions play a central role. Innovative measures to reduce risk and tackle its root causes have emerged in several cities. Overall, however, a fragmentation between the fields of disaster risk management and urban development manifests in increasing levels of intensive and extensive urban risk. To address this shortfall, this thesis aims to interrogate a recognised 'good practice' case - the medium-sized city of Manizales in the Colombian Andes - and its notion of integrated risk management from an urban development planning perspective. It focuses on the emergence and configuration of the institutional enabling environment to understand the contributing factors to the city's current pathway. This qualitative research is based on data from in-depth interviews, document analysis and participant observation. The analytical framework draws on critical junctures to highlight Manizales' historical institutional trajectories, as well as insights from integrated resource management to reveal the enabling environment for integrated risk management. Results show that the enabling environment is configured by the relations between normative, regulative and cultural-cognitive factors, which emerged from three themes of critical junctures: 1. hazard and disaster events; 2. normative changes in the built environment and land use planning; and 3. political strategies and frameworks. Analysing the trajectories of integrated disaster risk management in Manizales indicates how cities can innovate and create co-benefits while managing urban risk. The thesis thereby contributes to approaches for integrating risk strategically and making it a conditioning and potentially even driving factor for urban development.

Disaster risk is derived from the combination of natural hazards and anthropogenic influence. Consequently, the social and economic impact that natural hazards have may be massive depending on the communities' vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, the way a city develops can determine its potential losses due to disaster risk, which is the reason why an understanding of hazards impact and urban growth tendencies are fundamental to reduce risk and should be considered by the decision makers. This study aims to develop a disaster risk assessment within a land use cover change model to analyze different scenarios of land development plans in Bogota, Colombia. A Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) Model for urban and regional planning applications (Metronamica) is used to determine future land use scenarios for Bogota. Then, a risk assessment is conducted to demonstrate the opportunity for long-term risk planning by combining state-of-the-art urban modeling and risk assessment methodologies. In addition to the advanced urban model growth, this analysis is supported by a mapping and analytics Software (ArcGIS). Based on the different scenarios, it is possible to compare the behavior of disaster risk and forecast it by the year 2030. As a result of this analysis, risk maps have been obtained for each scenario and are shown along with the conclusions and recommendations. Furthermore, this investigation is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 (make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable) and will develop and improve the knowledge in risk assessment, to support the community and decision makers in the understanding of the impact that land development plans have on the magnitude of disastrous events, based on the found tendencies. It is intended to extend this study in the future to incorporate its findings into city resilience policy development.

A comprehensive review and analysis of the natural hazards menacing humanity. It also provides new and arresting evidence on how, where and why disaster risk is increasing globally. Drawing on detailed studies, this Global Assessment urges a radical shift in development practices, and a major new emphasis on resilience and disaster planning.

Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach.

Disasters resulting from natural hazards represent an important challenge for Colombia's fiscal sustainability and stability. Colombia is one of the countries with the highest recurrence rate of disasters caused by natural hazards in Latin America (see the Annex)1. As the country's population and economy continue to grow, so will the economic losses resulting from such events, an average of 600 disaster events of which is reported per year2. Colombia's rate of economic growth is increasing the base of assets exposed to disaster risks, which may lead to significant increases in losses, particularly if investments in new assets are not accompanied by plans for mitigating disaster risk. The Government of Colombia (GoC) recognizes the importance of mitigating these events and has taken several steps to mainstream disaster risk management into its policy and programs, as evinced by the National Development Plan '2014-2018', 'all for a New Country'. The MHCP is committed to developing strategies for reducing its contingent liabilities in relation to disasters and to managing the fiscal risk resulting from these events. This document presents the priority policy objectives that have been established to assess, reduce, and manage fiscal risk due to natural disasters. It also describes the MHCP's efforts to progress its policy objectives in the long term. These policy objectives represent the MHCP's ex ante policy framework regarding management of financial and fiscal disaster risk. The MHCP identifies three priority policy objectives in order to strengthen management of the Government's contingent liabilities and thus support the goal of achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal balance. The policy objectives are: (i) identification and understanding of fiscal risk due to disasters; (ii) financial management of natural disaster risk, including the implementation of innovative financial instruments; and (iii) catastrophe risk insurance for public assets.

Colombia has launched an ambitious reform to improve its risk governance and boost resilience to disasters. This OECD Disaster Risk Governance Scan reviews Colombia's progress in implementing the reform against the 2014 OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks. The report identifies success factors and good practices in implementing the disaster risk reform agenda, focusing on central government policies and their implementation, and provides a set of recommendations to strengthen Colombia's efforts in the future.

"Cost-benefit analysis is a standard tool for determining the efficiency of planned projects. But one of the major difficulties in risk mitigation investments is that benefits are by nature uncertain. In this context, the standard approach relying on the average value of benefits may provide an incomplete picture of the efficiency of the risk mitigation project under consideration. This paper presents a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis relying on a catastrophe risk model. It produces risk metrics such as the exceedance probability curve of the benefit-cost ratio, thus providing the decisionmaker with a more complete risk analysis of the net benefits of the project. This is illustrated with the earthquake vulnerability reduction project in Colombia."--World Bank web site.

Environmental degradation is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and decreased productivity. Urban and indoor air pollution; inadequate water supply, sanitation, and hygiene; natural disasters (mainly floods and landslides); and land degradation are the environmental problems associated with the highest social and economic costs, falling most heavily on vulnerable people, especially poor children under five years old. This book begins by exploring institutional change and environmental priorities in Colombia over the past 50 years, a time of substantial progress in environmental protection and rapid transition from a largely rural to a highly urbanised economy. Part 2 assesses the burden of disease rooted in inadequate water supply, sanitation, and hygiene; poor air quality; and natural disasters; and the environmental management practices to reduce that burden. A discussion of the environmental costs of rapid and unplanned urbanisation is also included. Part 3 assesses the sustainable management of Colombia's rich endowment of natural resources.

Disasters resulting from natural hazards represent an important challenge for Colombia's fiscal sustainability and stability. Colombia is one of the countries with the highest recurrence rate of disasters caused by natural hazards in Latin America. As the country's population and economy continue to grow, so will the economic losses resulting from such events, an average of 600 disaster events are reported each year. Colombia's rate of economic growth is increasing the base of assets exposed to disaster risks, which may lead to significant increases in losses, particularly if investments in new assets are not accompanied by plans for mitigating disaster risk. The Government of Colombia recognizes the importance of mitigating these events and has taken several steps to mainstream disaster risk management into its policy and programs, as evinced by the National Development Plan, 'prosperity for all 2010-2014' and the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit's (MHCP) Strategic Plan for the same period. The MHCP is committed to developing strategies for reducing its contingent liabilities in relation to disasters and to managing the fiscal risk resulting from these events. This document presents the priority policy objectives that have been established to assess, reduce, and manage fiscal risk due to natural disasters. It also describes the MHCP's efforts to progress its policy objectives in the long term. These policy objectives represent the MHCP's ex-ante policy framework regarding management of financial and fiscal disaster risk.