An Integrated Framework For Energy Economy Emissions Modeling

This book combines three different energy-economy-emissions modeling methodologies into one Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF) in an attempt to fill gaps in current modeling research as it applies to developing countries. Through the analysis of existing mathematical models, including large macro-economic models and technology-explicit energy models, the work proposes planning methodologies for developing countries that face challenges on their economy and infrastructure due to climate change. The three modeling methodologies discussed in the chapters are a decomposition analysis of trends in emissions intensity of GDP, linear programming techniques to determine optimum energy supply pathways given various resource and emissions constraints, and an input-output analysis to evaluate the impact of energy policies on income and equity. After a brief introduction to the history of the development of energy studies and the linkages between energy, economic, and environmental systems, the book delves into the component methodologies of the IMF and their intended outcomes. The decomposition analysis is intended to gauge the energy intensity of GDP and the structural composition of the economy to provide a basis on which scenarios are constructed in the following two methodologies. The linear programs are meant to develop a methodology to determine energy options under a variety of scenarios that capture the technical and economic characteristics of the power sector of developing countries. Lastly, the input-output analysis aims to build a methodology through which energy policy decisions can be understood and quantified to ensure the best possible impacts on developing economies and societies. Those who will be interested in this book include policy makers, academics, and students and professionals working on energy studies and energy-economy modeling.

In the policy arena, as well as in the academic world, a new challenge is having to deal with the global community. We are increasingly aware that the world is linked through economy–energy–environment interactions. We are increasingly aware, at the same time, that the emergence of the global community does not imply an integrated harmonious world; rather, it is a community where co- tries/regions of different interests and values face each other directly. Global governance has to be achieved through actions of national governments under different motives and constraints. We need to have an analytical tool that is capable of producing a global picture, yet with detailed country resolution. If the world is a better place now compared to 100 years ago in terms of p- capita income, this is due to the industrialization that continued throughout the 20th century. We entered the 21st century knowing that the human aspiration that translates into ever-increasing production may not be tenable in the long run. Sustainability of the global community is at stake. In contrast to inc- mental decision making through the market mechanism that should lead to some optimal state under some assumptions such as perfect knowledge, smooth movement of resources, no externalities, and so forth, we need to have an a- lytical tool to provide us with details of the future state of the world.

This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under climate change governance. The authors present several new models they have constructed based on the RICE framework, specifically the MRICES((multi-factor RICE)) and EMRICES models, which incorporate global economic interactions into the RICE framework, and the CINCIA model, which describes technological advances and industrial structure evolution, introducing the mechanism of evolutionary economics. The models discussed in the book help governments and policy-makers tackle climate change and take positive measures on climate governance as well as promote economic and social development to narrow the gaps between countries.

This book highlights how energy-system models are used to underpin and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions at national, multi-country and global levels. It brings together, for the first time in one volume, a range of methodological approaches and case studies of good modeling practice on a national and international scale from the IEA-ETSAP energy technology initiative. It provides insights for the reader into the rich and varied applications of energy-system models and the underlying methodologies and policy questions they can address. The book demonstrates how these models are used to answer complex policy questions, including those relating to energy security, climate change mitigation and the optimal allocation of energy resources. It will appeal to energy engineers and technology specialists looking for a rationale for innovation in the field of energy technologies and insights into their evolving costs and benefits. Energy economists will gain an understanding of the key future role of energy technologies and policy makers will learn how energy-system modeling teams can provide unique perspectives on national energy and environment challenges. The book is carefully structured into three parts which focus on i) policy decisions that have been underpinned by energy-system models, ii) specific aspects of supply and end-use sector modeling, including technology learning and behavior and iii) how additional insights can be gained from linking energy-system models with other models. The chapters elucidate key methodological features backed up with concrete applications. The book demonstrates the high degree of flexibility of the modeling tools used to represent extremely different energy systems, from national to global levels.

The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.

The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.

This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

The U.S. Congress charged the National Academies with conducting a review of the Internal Revenue Code to identify the types of and specific tax provisions that have the largest effects on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and to estimate the magnitude of those effects. To address such a broad charge, the National Academies appointed a committee composed of experts in tax policy, energy and environmental modeling, economics, environmental law, climate science, and related areas. For scientific background to produce Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, the committee relied on the earlier findings and studies by the National Academies, the U.S. government, and other research organizations. The committee has relied on earlier reports and studies to set the boundaries of the economic, environmental, and regulatory assumptions for the present study. The major economic and environmental assumptions are those developed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its annual reports and modeling. Additionally, the committee has relied upon publicly available data provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which inventories greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different sources in the United States. The tax system affects emissions primarily through changes in the prices of inputs and outputs or goods and services. Most of the tax provisions considered in this report relate directly to the production or consumption of different energy sources. However, there is a substantial set of tax expenditures called "broad-based" that favor certain categories of consumption-among them, employer-provided health care, owner-occupied housing, and purchase of new plants and equipment. Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions examines both tax expenditures and excise taxes that could have a significant impact on GHG emissions.

This new work on energy and environmental modeling describes a broad variety of modeling methodologies, embodied in models of varying scopes and philosophies. Examples range from top-down integrated assessment models to bottom-up partial equilibrium models, to hybrid models.