An Examination Of New Product Diffusion Models

Product sales, especially for new products, are influenced by many factors. These factors are both internal and external to the selling organization, and are both controllable and uncontrollable. Due to the enormous complexity of such factors, it is not surprising that product failure rates are relatively high. Indeed, new product failure rates have variously been reported as between 40 and 90 percent. Despite this multitude of factors, marketing researchers have not been deterred from developing and designing techniques to predict or explain the levels of new product sales over time. The proliferation of the internet, the necessity or developing a road map to plan the launch and exit times of various generations of a product, and the shortening of product life cycles are challenging firms to investigate market penetration, or innovation diffusion, models. These models not only provide information on new product sales over time but also provide insight on the speed with which a new product is being accepted by various buying groups, such as those identified as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. New Product Diffusion Models aims to distill, synthesize, and integrate the best thinking that is currently available on the theory and practice of new product diffusion models. This state-of-the-art assessment includes contributions by individuals who have been at the forefront of developing and applying these models in industry. The book's twelve chapters are written by a combined total of thirty-two experts who together represent twenty-five different universities and other organizations in Australia, Europe, Hong Kong, Israel, and the United States. The book will be useful for researchers and students in marketing and technological forecasting, as well as those in other allied disciplines who study relevant aspects of innovation diffusion. Practitioners in high-tech and consumer durable industries should also gain new insights from New Product Diffusion Models. The book is divided into five parts: I. Overview; II. Strategic, Global, and Digital Environments for Diffusion Analysis; III. Diffusion Models; IV. Estimation and V. Applications and Software. The final section includes a PC-based software program developed by Gary L. Lilien and Arvind Rangaswamy (1998) to implement the Bass diffusion model. A case on high-definition television is included to illustrate the various features of the software. A free, 15-day trial access period for the updated software can be downloaded from http://www.mktgeng.com/diffusionbook. Among the book's many highlights are chapters addressing the implications posed by the internet, globalization, and production policies upon diffusion of new products and technologies in the population.

This paper is based on the book New Product Diffusion Models (Mahajan, Muller & Wind, 2000), and is organized as follows: The summary presents a short overview of the book, which addresses many issues of new product diffusion as well as some models that describe such diffusion processes. Among them are the basic Bass diffusion and multi-state flow models. The Interpretations section provides a in-depth discussion illustrating the author?s view of multi-state flow models and their relation to new product diffusion models. This section goes beyond the material covered in the book and is intended to provide the reader with a better understanding of the Bass model and its underlying assumptions. This section also includes a discussion on parameter extraction techniques, which is continued in subsequent sections. The application of the Bass diffusion model for the Xerox DocuTech family of products is discussed. The application of the Bass diffusion model in the digital color press market is also discussed. The outcome of this investigation shows that the Bass model requires from 6 to 10 years of sales to be a valid sales model, and that the model functions better if the market size is known. The examples show however, that once a few years of data are available and the market size is known, the model can predict sales quite accurately for a long time into the future, with very good precision.

Presents a powerful set of techniques for investigating the temporal diffusion process of any innovation. In addition, this volume outlines several widely used diffusion models and suggests their appropriate applications.

Wee felt it before in sense; but now wee know it by science. Edward Misselden (1623) The collective effort reported in this volume is the outcome of the diffusion of the idea of diffusion as a fundamental process in society. The considerable number of disciplines represented here indicates the weight of the problem area. The editors are to be congratulated for their initiative in drawing together present thinking at a vivid meeting, now also in print. An old timer in the business has not much to add. But maybe some things, bearing in mind that a Preface is a celebration and not a review. As always with ideas it is hard to identify those who first gave shape to the idea of diffusion. In a general sense it is probably an observation as old as human self-reflection that groups of populations exchange ideas and copy habits and implements from each other. Sometimes it has even been recommended, as a Chinese proverb suggested millenia ago, "If you want to become a good farmer, look at your neighbor" .

Divergence: A Source of Creative Thinking The outstanding job accomplished by Bernard, Gary, and Gilles is really praiseworthy: not only did they succeed in completing within a remark ably short span of time the editing of the contributions to the conference that marked the 20th Anniversary of the European Institute for Ad vanced Studies in Management; they have also managed to elicit numerous insightful comments from a host of dashing young scholars as well as from the fortunate few established authorities whose findings have long be come leading articles in the best academic journals, who now chair those journals' editorial boards, and after whom great scientific awards have been named. In so doing, our dedicated triumvirate has blended together pieces of diverse research traditions-some of them quite puzzling-and mixed significantly differentiated styles of expression. The controversial display of self-confidence by some distinguished colleagues, the amazingly emo tional "good old" memories revived by their peers, the scapegoat-finding and moralizing confessions produced by some of their disciples together with the detached systematic rigidity of some others all combine to pro duce a multivarious patchwork that may well prove the existence of a marketing scholar lifecycle. This cartoon-like four-class typology might even make it worth the reader's while to indulge in some guesswork to discover the sequence of the four stages as an exercise and then partition the author population accordingly.

The digital age has transformed the very nature of marketing. Armed with smartphones, tablets, PCs and smart TVs, consumers are increasingly hanging out on the internet. Cyberspace has changed the way they communicate, and the way they shop and buy. This fluid, de-centralized and multidirectional medium is changing the way brands engage with consumers.At the same time, technology and innovation, coupled with the explosion of business data, has fundamentally altered the manner we collect, process, analyse and disseminate market intelligence. The increased volume, variety and velocity of information enables marketers to respond with much greater speed, to changes in the marketplace. Market intelligence is timelier, less expensive, and more accurate and actionable.Anchored in this age of transformations, Marketing Analytics is a practitioner's guide to marketing management in the 21st century. The text devotes considerable attention to the way market analytic techniques and market research processes are being refined and re-engineered. Written by a marketing veteran, it is intended to guide marketers as they craft market strategies, and execute their day to day tasks.

New products are the major driver of revenue growth in today's dynamic business environment. In this Handbook, the world's foremost experts on new product development bring together the latest thinking on this vitally important topic. These thought-leading authors organize knowledge into useful and insightful frameworks covering all aspects of new product development: companies, collaborators, customers, context, markets, and performance. Managers will benefit from the handbook by expanding their knowledge of new product development and researchers will learn about opportunities to continue expanding on this body of knowledge.

It. is well known that t.he introduction of a new technology in one organization not always produces the intended benefits (Levine, 1994). In many cases, either the receivers do not reach the intended level of use or simply the technology is rejected because it does not match with the expectations (true or false) and the accepted psychological effort to use it. The case of formal methods is a paradigmatic example of continual failures. The published cases with problems or failures only constitute the visible part of a large iceberg of adoption cases. It. is difficult to get companies to openly express the problems they had; however, from the experience of the author, failure cases are very common and they include any type of company. Many reasons to explain the failures (and in some cases the successes) could be postulated; however, the experiences are not structured enough and it is difficult to extract from them useful guidelines for avoiding future problems. Generally speaking, there is a trend to find the root of the problems in the technol ogy itself and in its adequacy with the preexistent technological context. Technocratic technology transfer models describe the problems in terms of these aspects. Although it is true that those factors limit the probability of success, there is another source of explanations linked to the individuals and working teams and how they perceive the technology.