An Econometric Model Of Hardwood Lumber And Stumpage Markets In The United States

Two econometric models were developed to forecast consumption, production, and price of hardwood lumber, and removals and price of hardwood sawlog stumpage. Four eastern U.S. regions were represented in the models. Hardwood lumber consumption by manufacturing, shipping, residential construction, and nonresidential construction industries was recognized. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals from nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were identified in each of the four eastern regions. Each model consisted of behavioral relationships which explain consumption, production, or removals as a function of price and other explanatory variables. Estimates of these relationships were developed using annual time series data for the sample period 1960 to 1976. Based on the analysis of historical simulations, the models appeared to provide adequate predictive ability to be used to develop forecasts. Hardwood lumber consumption, production, and price were forecast to increase to the year 2030. Manufacturing and shipping industries increase their share of hardwood lumber consumption over this time period. Hardwood lumber production shares increase for the two southern regions. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals for the nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were forecast to increase. The nonindustrial private share of hardwood sawlog stumpage removals declines. Hardwood sawlog stumpage prices were forecast to decline in three of the four eastern regions.

Scarcity of natural resources has been of concern to industrial societies since Malthus developed his theory of population growth and resource use in the late 18th century. Barnett and Morse, in 1963, tested the widely held premise that natural resource commodities are becoming more economically scarce. They concluded that of all major natural resource commodities-agricultural, mineral, and timber-only timber commodities were increasing in economic scarcity. In particular, sawlogs have shown consistent increases in economic scarcity since the late 1800's. Data were prepared for the Barnett and Morse study by Potter and Christy and subsequently updated by Potter and Christy and subsequently updated by Manthy to 1973. This paper extends and expands these data series on timber commodities. Specifically, information will be presented on one indicator of economic scarcity-trends in real prices (prices deflated by the general producer price index). (Author).