An Aggregate Theory Of International Payments Adjustment

The five parts of this collection of essays systematically and thoroughly examine the two competing theories of balance of payments and adjustment, namely the Keynesian and the Monetary approaches. Each part deals with specific aspects of the two approaches. Part I surveys the theories behind these two approaches, looking at the presuppositions, main theory, and policy recommendations which they include. Part II examines the empirical literature and describes the numerous models which have been proposed. Part III critiques the two theories on their assumptions, policy advice and empirical modeling. Part IV compares and contrasts the two views, both theoretically and empirically. Empirical studies on different countries are performed to emphasize the differing set of accounts and variables of the two approaches. Part V considers the approaches in a regime of flexible exchange rates. Scholars, students and researchers will find this collection of great help in understanding the two approaches to balance of payments and adjustment.

This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.

Some of the most important developments of the last quarter century relate to the internationalization of financial issues: the advent of free trade areas; the efforts of the European Union in establishing a single currency; burdens of international indebtedness; and the economic growth and development of nations. International financial systems are increasingly fragile and vulnerable in the face of possible international financial shock. Exchange rate issues and other changes in financial conditions have profound consequences not only for multinational corporations which have to devise new ways of managing their global operations, but also for firms and industries at the national level. The papers in this book confront these and other problems in international finance that have arisen in recent years, seeking to identify causal linkages at the global, national and company levels.

First published in 1997, this volume responded to a current national concern with quality control. Part 1 addresses issues including the US trade deficit, international lending to Brazil and the traditional theory of international finance. Part 2 explores topics such as the history of statistics in the West and former East and the haphazard axiomatic methodological basis of traditional econometrics. Finally, part 3 consists of 7 papers on applied economics and finance, including predicting the success of takeover bids and an examination of the economic determinants of juvenile crime in New York City.

International Economics is unique despite the existence of numerous books of the same title. It is true that no one volume can capture the entire state of the art of the subject, but individuals can apply their own perspectives to identify crucial issues in the development of the field. Therefore, rather than instructions to prepare "surveys" of subfields within international economics, the contributors to this book were informed as follows: Your essay should present an affirmative but constructively critical look at your subject. It is not meant to be a survey. Rather, your task is to pinpoint crucial areas of development, to offer a critical evaluation of what's going on in the field and where it might go. Your contribution would be your own personal statement of how you see things. It should be written at the professional level. Beyond these general guidelines, you may develop your essay as you see fit. How much of "international economics" should be assigned to each author and how many contributions the book should have, required careful consideration. Traditionally, international economics has been divided into pure theory and monetary theory, suggesting a simple division of the field; but this dichotomy has been overturned by the emergence of litera ture that overlaps both theories. An opposite approach would have been to separate international economics into twelve to fifteen areas, each with a contributor. This procedure divides the field into too many parts and, consequently, overlapping threads of development would be ignored.