A Risk And Returns Analysis Of Farmland Values

Lean supplies, strong export activity, and vibrant demand both at home and abroad have pushed crop prices to record highs, offsetting today¿s spiraling production costs. As a result, farm profits and investments have soared, and farmland values have boomed. The author discusses current farmland value trends and analyzes the factors underlying the recent surge. He concludes that the recent surge in farmland values tracks expected gains in crop returns. At the same time, however, an unexpected surge in production costs or a drop in crop prices could undercut farmland values and pose a financial risk to the farm sector. Thus far, however, the industry¿s debt levels are up only modestly, helping to mitigate the risks of a drop in farm incomes. Charts and tables.

Of immeasurable value to lenders, agricultural economists, and a host of agribusinesses this unique volume brings together leading farmland authorities in the United States and Canada to examine the economic determinants of land value and the consequences of change in land values. As the most basic factor of production in the agricultural enterprise, farmland dominates the agricultural balance sheet, accounting for an average of 70% of all agricultural assets. The authors of this timely book provide expert analysis and review of this subject.

Previous research on returns to farmland derived data from aggregate U.S. or regional sources. A distinction of this document is that an actual portfolio of Illinois farms are evaluated. This thesis extends past research by analyzing a longer and more current period. The results suggest that Illinois farmland pays a substantial premium above what is required for systematic risk and that its returns are negatively correlated to most major asset classes. Illinois farmland adds very little risk to a well-diversified portfolio and is a hedge against inflation.

This dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/150974

Weather in the Corn Belt and northern plains and the elimination of traditional commodity programs have refocused attention on farmland valuation. This study uses a statistical formulation of information provided by individual regressors to examine the sensitivity of farmland values to changes in inflation, returns on agricultural assets, and the cost of capital. The results indicate that inflation provides the most information on changes in farmland values; however, the regional results indicate that regions that tend to be more sensitive to changes in the return on agricultural assets also rely more heavily on government payments.